200 to 1? (This Is How I Think Part lll)

I was walking through the sportsbook yesterday afternoon and saw odds for Syracuse to win the NCAA basketball championship at 200 to 1.

200 to 1????

How can I pass on 200 to 1?

To give you some perspective on value, I went to see Sarah Silverman at the Hard Rock last night and this exact same Syracuse bet was offered at only at 75 to 1!

200 to 1 at one hotel. 75 to 1 at another.

Shop around people! Shop around!

I'd mock the Hard Rock for offering such poor odds but apparently they're finally building a poker room so I'll hold off on any further criticism till we get to see that baby.

Now for this 200 to 1 bet to have (any) value they obviously need to make the NCAA Tournament. That's not a guarantee. With 4 games to go in the regular season Syracuse is 17-10 with an RPI of 46. If Syracuse were to lose in the first round of the Big East, who knows if they still get invited to the big dance?

But if they can get there, I think they're a dangerous team to play. They come from the Big East. They're used to playing in big games. They have 5 players who average scoring in double figures. They've played Georgetown tough both times. They have a freshman point guard named Johnny Flynn who can create his own shot at the end of games when they'll need a big basket.

Win the NCAA championship? It won't happen. Yet this measly $20 wager suddenly gives me great hedging potential to bet against the Orangemen come March. Knowing that if somehow someway Syracuse can win 6 games in a row, I'm sitting on $4020 of insurance.