The Fridge is Still Cool

I bet Green Bay Packers (13-0) to win last Sunday at Kansas City. 

I really did. 

The money line was Packers -800. 

Normally risking 800 to win 100 is a horrible proposition.

But not here.  

Nope.  

Cause there was no way the Pack could lose this game.  

None.  

To be honest I didn't expect to actually see a money line offered with the 14 point spread. 

And when I did -800 appeared to be reasonable.

Cause the real question is would Green Bay go 19-0.  Not can they beat KC on the road in week 15.  Have you seen KC?

The only thing to decide was an acceptable dollar amount to wager. 

Initially I was going to use my entire sports betting bankroll. 

A bankroll I built up through small wagers using consistent units. 

A typical unit was 3% of my roll. 

Not 100%. 

Luckily that little voice went off inside my head and said "Robert, if you lose this you will be OUT of action.  No NFL playoffs.  No Super Bowl.  No NBA.  No March Madness.  DONE."   

I listened to the voice and decided to wager only 75% of my bankroll. 

Enough to make it hurt a little but at least I would still have action if disaster struck. 

Around an hour before the game started I went online and noticed the odds quickly dropping. 

Green Bay down to -650.  KC only +450.  Terrible sign. 

The fix was in. 

Lots of money going Chiefs way. 

This couldn't have been inspired by Kyle Orton right? 

I mean if I liked it at -800, I am loving it at -650.

Right? 

The game starts. 

Uh oh.

Kyle Orton has shaved his moustache. 

That is not supposed to happen. 

Kyle Orton needs a moustache. 

It's part of who Kyle Orton is.  

If Kyle Orton is sans moustache then this needs to appear in the NFL injury report. 

There should be fines involved here. 

Shame on the NFL for not sharing this information. 

I did brag to a few friends during the game that I had bet Green Bay.  Told them to look out for KC and my cooling powers. 

This wager was clearly win/win.  

Either I'd collect a few dollars on the sure thing that couldn't miss. 

Or I'd spend 75% of my roll to buy a good story. 

The fridge is still cool. 

This blog entry has been sponsored by the Green Bay Packers money line.

The Pain One Endures as a Math Person.

I saw the poster below while checking into the Rio for the World Series of Poker. 

You do the math.  

So much for buying in bulk.


 

Live Poker?

I was in the Midwest over the weekend and excited to learn I was minutes away from a casino that had poker.

Well sort of.

Upon arrival I noticed there were no chips.  No cards.  There wasn't even a dealer.

10 players were seated around a table.  This I can confirm.

However the problem was the table looked exactly like this.

I guess this is the future.

Anyhow what inspired me to write about this experience was a particular hand where I floated a young aggressive player on the flop in hopes of bluffing him on the river.

We both checked the turn and my moment came on 5th street when I fired out a 66% of the pot bet to try and get him to fold.

The young aggressive kid asks me if the ace on the turn helped me.

I sat there in silence.

So what does he do to get a read?

He bets all in.

The way the game works each player must click a second time to "confirm" the action they have selected.

So "all in" doesn't really mean "all in" until you confirm.

This means you can pull back bets after seeing a reaction.  You can change your fold to call.  You can string bet all night long.

I quickly accepted that this maneuver was part of the strategy.  The game allows players to do this. The young kid was just using whatever resources were available to him to try and take me down.

He eventually cancelled his all in to fold.

Then confirmed.  

And if I was savvy enough to show my bluff I may have.

I just don't think this is what our founding fathers intended when they legalized poker in the declaration of independence.

So it turns out that electronic computerized poker against other human beings does exist in the USA.

You just have to go live to play it.

My Hobby

This having too much free time without internet poker in my life is getting way out of hand and complicating matters.  

I'm doing too much of the stuff I've always wanted to do. Things I had been putting off for years.

It used to be that whatever I didn't get done on my list each week would just get dragged to the next week.

Now I am suddenly forced into the awkward situation of actually crossing things off the list.

Tasks never intended to be finished are suddenly complete.

My updated bucket list pales in comparison to the original. 

What ever happened to sitting around and wasting time?

Notes From The Outside

Your reluctant hero got himself to one of Southern California's card club establishments for the first time since leaving Vegas almost three years ago.

Live poker is much slower than I had remembered.

The first level took decades.

I graduated from college and attended my 25 year reunion before we hit 50/100.

I put on some weight.   

I changed jobs four times.

I lost the weight and then put it back on as muscle.

Then I lost it again.

I had a midlife crisis.  

All the while I kept double checking the time on my phone.

At one point I was sitting at the table, bored out of my mind, chastising myself for such tight play.

I then counted my chips and realized we hadn't orbited yet in the tournament.

How was the play?

Surprisingly good.  Maybe it should be.  It has been eight years since Moneymaker came along.

By this point in time everyone definitely has a strategy.  Everyone showed up with a plan.

Something however was missing from tables I remember in Vegas.

Folks on vacation.

Humans taking a break from the pit games.

Gentlemen looking for action and willing to drop some dollars to get it.

This type of player was just not there.

No, to travel to Bell Gardens, California at 4pm to play in a rebuy requires the belief that one knows what they are doing.  The belief that one actually has a shot at winning $30,000. 

And while it's true that I've been away from the game for awhile, apparently all of the characters are still the same. 

When those writers I've hired to edit this blog entry for me get to work, we can have them include descriptions for each type of player I saw at the table.  You know. So that you can fully enjoy my experience of having been there.

I do want to comment on how cruel some of the players were to the dealers.

I can't recall ever seeing it go this far at a poker table in Vegas.

Apparently the California card dealers are not as well protected as their Vegas cousins.

There were a few older ones who were decent but the younger dealers were constantly receiving player abuse, which only made them more nervous and make more mistakes.

I really wish I had filmed some of the interactions I witnessed with my camera as these guys displayed perhaps the best argument I've seen to date for legalizing and regulating internet poker.

(Well other than letting adults do adult things in the privacy of their own home).

These guys let everyone know that there are sick cruel demented people who do not know how to treat others in a public setting.

Which is exactly why God invented internet poker.

So I don't have to sit next to these folks in person.

If only the U.S. Congress could see what I saw.

The horror!  The horror!

I Can't Help It If I'm Lucky

Following up on the last post, here was my play:

I took half of my bankroll and put it on Miami for game 3 at+120.

I took the other half and put it on Dallas at +130 for the series.

The fact that Miami won game 3 let me breathe.  I showed a profit regardless of what would happen the rest of the way.  If somehow Dallas defied history and won the series, I would look like a genius.

Or at least very lucky.

As we know from poker, it can be very easy to confuse the two.

What do the NBA Finals and the 2-3-2 Format Have to do with Your Retirement Plan?

We are all going to be old soon so let me be brief. 

I am not a big fan of the 2-3-2 format used in the NBA Finals.  Why switch over from the 2-2-1-1-1 to the 2-3-2 for the final round?  The 2-2-1-1-1 is far more intelligent, incredibly more fair, much more reasonable, clearly more likeable, and has better hygiene?*  But rather than sit here and talk about how David Stern could make the NBA a better place, lets actually do something for the world by focusing on how to make you money based on the outcome of his NBA finals.

The first step is to get in your car and drive to Vegas if you can make it there before game 3 starts Sunday night.  Immediately.  Go.  You can read the rest of this on the way during rest stops.  In fact if you can't get to Vegas in time to bet on the game then there is no point reading the rest of this article.  So technically speaking, no one should still be reading.  Those who can make it to Vegas should already be in their cars.**  And those who cannot should stop reading as well as reading further will only frustrate you when you see how much money you would have won by taking advantage of the incredible value being offered.

Here's the scoop:  Since the NBA gas gone to this painful 2-3-2 format, when the series is tied 1-1 the team that has won game 3 has gone on to win the series all 11 times.   For those of you playing along at home that's an 11-0 record for the game 3 winner

The leap of faith your financial adviser is asking you to take is to understand that the winner of Maimi at Dallas game 3 Sunday night will go on to win the series.  Sure seems possible, plausible, and dare I say believable.

I will not tell you who to pick.  We do not want to make lines move.

What I do, want to do, is help you maximize your profit.

If you like Dallas do not take them at -140 in game 3.  Grab them at +130 to win the series.  This fits nicely in your portfolio along with the +160 to win the series you have from before it started, along with the ridiculous +250 Mavs series line you grabbed after they lost game 1.

If you are a Miami guy bang the Heat at +120 for game 3. I know.  Nervous Heat fans are sitting there thinking they don't need to win game 3 to win the series.  And I am here to say 11-0.  The Heat better win game 3 if they are going to win this series.  What a gift to get them at +120 for a game they are going to win if they are going to win the NBA Finals. 

To review:

At this moment in time we can get Dallas +130 to win the series.  Heat +120 to win game 3.    In essence there is no favorite.  Only value.  

A week from now one of these is going to seem like it was too good to have been true.

But it was.

At this moment in time.***

You're welcome.


*The 2-3-2 format requires players to stay at least 3 nights in the same hotel room. 

**I do not endorse the reading of this while driving on the I-15 or any other road that leads to Vegas. 


*** As long as the team that wins game 3 continues to go on to win the series.

3.5 Weeks Later

Hmmmm.  I sure wouldn't mind playing me some internet poker this weekend. 

What a great way to relax, have some fun and enjoy myself. 

Maybe go deep in a tourney and win some money. 

Oh sure I could play live and visit one of LA's card clubs. 

Or drive a bit further and do some damage in Vegas. 

But I gotta admit it sure sounds nice to just stay at home and play.

Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act

What strikes me as unlawful is pushing through an agenda without proper debate. 

Sneaking something into a 2006 port security bill that no one would dare vote against.

Not having a real discussion about the matter.

Where are all the adults at? 

On the bright side, it sure is nice to have time back on the weekends.  

7 Years of Poker

So here I am sitting on a decent story of going to Vegas last Summer to play in a bracelet event.  I finished day 1 sitting next to Matt Matros which worked out well for me having him to my right.  I then had an unexpected day off before returning for day 2.  This was due to the 4000+ player field having two "day 1" starting days.   

This bonus day off just happened to be my birthday. My friend, the good doctor Blerge magically appeared.  If one is forced to face the indignity of spending a birthday in Vegas, Blerge sure ain't a bad person to do it with.

Various debauchery ensued all over that small town in Nevada.  Good memories were instantly created.   My birthday would eventually end early that next morning with me finishing up what began as a late night Main Event satellite.

It's not too often I get to play in a second live tournament while still being alive in the first. This also seems like a good time to mention that I am one of those people who believes that if you step on a butterfly in Brooklyn, someone coughs in Forrest Lake.

Well it could actually be a sneeze.  Lets just say that it's one of those noises from a human being where the other person in the room doesn't know whether to say "God bless you" or not.  You know. Cause sneezes are worthy of blessing and coughs are not.

This is all my roundabout way of sharing that the events of my birthday completely changed the luck I would experience the next morning on day 2 of the bracelet tourney.  That's right.  The power of someone calling an all in raise with their king queen close to the bubble for a $10,000 seat has that kind of residual effect.  

I'm still not sure why he makes that call.  We were pretty equal in chips so basically he was risking 10K on king queen. Friends tell me that some call all in with king queen there hoping the other plays has jacks or smaller.  Still that's taking the worst of it.  And the fact that I could easily have ace king makes the king queen call not so likable to my stomach.   Like I may not make that call with ace queen.  And he's calling with king queen.  Because how can you ever fold king queen?

Despite this late night setback I still had to wake up and play Day 2.  Yet clearly I was no longer on the same rush.  Suddenly my ace king was losing to ace rag.  Suddenly my pairs were watching smaller pairs flop sets.  Poker stopped being easy.  And my stack fluctuated....like a stack that fluctuates.   How's that for a metaphor?
  
The highlight of day 2 was my knocking out David Sklansky.  I raised preflop with ace king and Sklansky pushed all in from the blinds.  Such a fun moment in that there is no way I can be ahead here.  He sure ain't making that move with ace jack.  On the other hand there is no way I can fold.  It was for a small percentage of my chips and more importantly we've got a story at stake.   Sklansky had queens.  I flopped an ace.  Which only means that at that moment he was running worse than I was. 

After dinner I sat with Alex Jacobs at two tables.  The first table was tough with him to my left.  The second table was easier with him to my right.  When they broke our table with around 250 players left I still had hope.  At my new table I picked up pocket 7's on the first hand but doubled up a guy who pushed behind me with ace nine.  Soon after I picked up ace 10 suited, got the rest of my chips in but could not overcome pocket 6's.  And just like that my month long ride of running well was officially over.  

I had really wanted to go into detail about many of the hands that took place.  Just like the good old days.  But right now that's not possible.  So I am going the other way with it. 

This entry is me ending the story and reclaiming my blog so that I can post again.  There have been moments over the past few months where I had something to say but felt I couldn't because I hadn't finished this other story.  Well now I have.


In 2010 I did not have enough time to write about poker.

However that's not the real shame.

No, the real shame was I didn't have enough time to play. 

100/200

With my stack in the 12k range I pick up 8,9 suited in early position and raise to 500. 

Loose aggressive player to my left makes it 1800.

It gets folded back around to me.

1300 to win 2600 but more importantly the villain began the hand with approximately 10k.  We expect him to continue bet the flop at which point he will have committed a decent percent of his stack.  So from my seat in the world's largest poker room my implied odds appear to be approximately 1300...to win his stack.

Moments like these are known in poker as a good time to flop a monster.

Flop comes queen, 8, 2.  

I check. 

He pushes all in.

Wow.  

Hmmm.  

Damn.  

All legitimate reactions. 

Later on I spoke to a rocket scientist about this hand and it was his belief that the villain either holds a big pair or is completely bluffing.  It's analysis like this that earns guys like that the big bucks.  

Why did the villain push all in?  Plenty of folks play their monsters this way on the internet.  They over bet and hope their bully move subtly taunts you into making a bad call.  These players try to get paid off by casting you as the unbelieving table cop in the independent film that doubles as their life.

Me?  I think he has ace king.  If he really has a monster there's no need to force me out of the hand.  This guy doesn't want to bet the flop and risk giving me the chance to raise.  So he pushes all in to take away any response on my part.  Other than my calling all in for most of my stack.  And who likes to do that?  

If I am correct that he has ace king then math loudly says I should call.  Oh sure I will have to survive the turn and river but there are great benefits if my hand holds.  My stack will be up over 20k and have enough chips to start snowballing.  I can fulfill my destiny and upset people by playing too many hands.  In fact making this call is exactly how I hyped "myself to myself" driving to Vegas.  I told myself I would play fearlessly, trust my gut and build up my stack or be done.  Well here's the moment big shot poker player.  Here's my chance to show everyone how good I am by calling this all in with middle pair after my opponent's actions have done nothing but insist that he has the best hand.     

If I am wrong I will needlessly give away most of my chips during level 100/200.  If I call and he turns over pocket kings boy will I feel silly.  An aura of shame will surround me.  I will be forced into drastic life changes.  I will obviously have to change my name.  Plastic surgery will be a consideration.  I probably won't have to fake my death again but minimally I will have to move a few thousand miles away and start a new blog.  I will miss playing poker but maybe I can start playing bridge?

I absolutely struggle with the decision.   Do I really want to move again?

If this was the river I think I trust my read and call. 

If the question is simply "am I ahead right now?" I would take the chance.

However I can't get past the consideration that if he is bluffing with ace king this villain still has a 25% chance of winning the hand.  The universe will still reward his awesome playing style 1 out of every 4 times he does this. Even when I make the correct call.  And something in me feels this coming.  

I suppose this is where poker becomes so tough mentally.  To get oneself ahead in a hand 75%-25% is a dream.  It's more than ideal.  Yet 25% happens all the time.  There are 250 hitters in baseball.  People also usually aren't rushing into having an operation that has a 25% fatality rate.   

And yet the way gambling works, anytime you can have disaster occur only 25% of the time you jump at the chance.

So if I am ahead I can call and my hand holds up 75% of the time.   Or I am behind, call and probably give away most of my stack which I am lucky and grateful to have accumulated. 

It's a 3 day tournament. 

I fold.

Villain flashes me a king as he mucks, purposely showing me a card that did not connect.  He wants me to believe he didn't have it.  That he folded ace king.   So perhaps he did have kings the whole time and was doing the internet over bet discussed above.  Or he got his chips in with ace king and got me to fold.  King queen would certainly be another option.  He could have raised with it preflop. Lots of players do that to find out if the other has ace king.  Then he got lucky hitting the queen and tried to make it seem like he was stealing.  All 3 scenarios are possible.  That's why we have rocket scientists.  And hole cams.  So we can figure this stuff out. 

In life sometimes our orbitofrontal cortex makes decisions for us.

Mine told me to fold.

Even though my ego really wanted to gamble.

50/100

Guy raises in early position to 300.   He's the same human who pushed all in holding ace 8 in the hand I described in my prior entry.

My pocket queens inspire and require an immediate response, so I bump it up to 850.

As I wait for his next move it becomes apparent that this time around he's much stronger.  From across the table I can see a vein pulsating in his neck.  If he's acting, then this guy has talent. I am fully convinced he has a top 5 hand.  I am desperately hoping it is ace king.  Unfortunately his aura may also indicate kings or aces.  Yes I have queens.  However I may need to get out of his way.  

He asks the dealer for time, then sits in silence with his arms crossed. I'm not sure what I've looked like when making important decisions in my life, but I cannot confirm that I have ever thought as hard as this guy is thinking right now.

I take in the behavior and decide if he comes back over the top with a reraise, I will fold. I've seen this display of adrenaline at the table before. The guy is nervous because he anticipates he is about to experience action. Not because he is bluffing.  I am watching a civilized version of fight or flight.  

He apologizes to me for taking so long.  I try to help him work through his decision by encouraging him to take as much time as he needs.  By now I figure he is going to raise.  Any second I expect to hear the magic words "I'm all in."  Yet for whatever reason he does not say them.  For some reason he just calls.  Maybe he is trapping me.  Looking ahead, I am not sure what I will do if he checks to me post flop.   

The universe bails me out with a queen high flop.    

Then, as if things couldn't get any better, the gentleman across from me acts first and pushes all in.  

See how EASY poker is?  

People saying you need to read books and practice playing the game to get better.  Not true at all.  All you need to be successful at poker is to flop top set every time. 

I call and turn over my cards so the table can see what a luck box I am. 

Mr. Ace 8 turns over his hand as well.  

Pocket kings.

Well at least he bought himself a good bad beat story to tell everyone back home. 

My set holds and my stack grows to somewhere in the 10k range.  

Have I mentioned how well I've been running lately?

Random Hand From Level 2

Guy in early position raises to 150.  

Action folds around to me in middle position where I appear to have ace jack.  

(How are you ever really sure?)  

If you're familiar with any of my poker books then you already know pretty much any response is defensible here.

Folding is acceptable.  It's a three day long tournament and all I have is ace jack facing an early position raise.  If I were a betting man I'm not sure I would bet I have the best hand at the moment.

Raising is acceptable.  I would quickly find out where I stand.  Perhaps I can get ace queen to lay down or ace king to shove.  Either of these actions by my opponent could benefit my ace jack.  

Calling is....well it's probably the worst of the three options.

Lets consider the positives to calling:

-I am in position.  I will get to act last throughout the hand.  Always a good thing.

-I can get away cheap later on if I don't flop well.  150 chips means very little to me with a slightly over 6k stack.

-I might flop lucky.  Not a very good reason to call.  But I'd be lying to you if I said I've never thought this way.     

Okay.  You talked me into it.  I'd much rather fold or raise but since you guys play such loose poker I will call and risk 150 chips to see if I can flop ace, jack, jack.  

The big blind joins our dance party.  Damn.  Maybe I should have raised to get him out of the picture.

Remember how I wanted to raise but you wouldn't let me?

You know what?  It doesn't matter.

Forget about it.

I'm not sure how it benefits us now for me to blame you the reader for this call.

Even if it was your fault.

The three of us see an ace, rag, rag flop.  

I told you I've been running well.    

At least that's what I thought until the big blind led out for 300 followed by the early position raiser pushing all in for around 1500 more.

Action returns to me.  Suddenly I have absolutely no idea where I stand in this hand.

I guess this is why you don't call raises preflop with ace jack.

Now it wouldn't be a disaster if I call the all in here and double up the early position guy.  I'd still be above average in chips and I may actually have the best hand.  I am here to accumulate chips and heads up I probably talk myself into making this call.

However when I look to my left I really have no clue at all what the big blind has.  And unfortunately he has a healthy stack.  What if I call here and he pushes behind me?    

While mulling this over I also recall it was the early position guy who raised preflop.  He could have ace king or ace queen.  Nothing he has done in this hand suggests otherwise.  If he has a pocket pair he probably folds to the blinds bet.  Instead he raised.  With two other players in the hand.  He must have an ace.

I chastise myself one last time for calling the raise preflop with ace jack and fold.  

The big blind calls the all in.

Whew. I am glad I folded!

I've obviously got mad skills, laying down ace jack on an ace high flop.  

Where is ESPN when you need them?

The cards are turned over.

Big Blind has..................................middle pair.  Wow.

Early position raiser has.................... ace 8 off.  Ouch.

I folded the best hand.   The hand that someone thought was good enough to call 150 with preflop, yet not good enough to stick around with after hitting top pair.

What kind of hand is that?

There was a point in time when I wasn't a good enough poker player to lay down top pair.

Have I mentioned lately how good I am?

The Long and Winding Recap

WSOP Event 54.  $1000 No Limit Hold 'em Tournament.  3,844 players entered.    

First hand.  Human being under the gun raises to 75.  Everyone sitting between us folds.  I look down at pocket kings.  

Most folks probably raise here.  

I call.  

Mostly to annoy my readers.  

You know. 

In case I ever get to write about this.   

I also want the raiser to bet again on the flop.  

Oh sure this sort of greed has gotten me into trouble before.  Particularly when said opponent flops a set.  

I will give you that. 

That I will concede. 

You are correct indeed.

All I ask for in return is you to acknowledge the war crimes of your nation and admit that my opponent will not put me on pocket kings later on in the hand.  

And as long as we're talking openly here, can we also discuss the elephant in the room?  

The fact that the man sitting to my left has raised preflop from first position.   

Back when I played poker in Texas in the late 20th century this could only mean one thing:

He has aces.

Have I mentioned this is the first hand of the tournament?  

I have? 

Then why do I need to play a big pot against him right now with one pair?  

Why can't I see the flop and rely on my alleged experience?   

Doesn't anyone slow play anymore?

You would have raised?  

Okay. 

That's fine.    

Nothing wrong with raising here.

However at this point I would just like to move on and talk about the rest of the hand.  

Can't we move on?

Seriously.  

Why can't we get to the flop of the first hand of the tournament without having a complete meltdown?

I know.  I get it.  

You would have raised and I called.    

We all get it.   

What can't you let this call go?   

Why is it such a big deal that I didn't raise preflop from the blinds with kings? 

Why are you doing this?

I just spent 5 nights in Vegas.  I've got hours of stories.   

If you're going to be this difficult about how I handled the first decision on the first hand we'll never get through them.  

Actually you know what?  Forget I said anything.

I don't mind waiting.  

I don't care if this takes months.  

Ask the other readers.  

Patience is my virtue.   

Unfortunately the way life works, all of you have to suffer through this delay just because a few people don't get it.  

Well one in particular.  

Okay. Lets try to keep this going. 

So I call and the flop comes out king,8,2.  All hearts.  

I've hit top set but live in a world where I have no flush draw. 

I check and let villain bet.  He obliges by sliding out 450.   More than twice the pot. 

We started with 3000 chips.  I raise to 1450 total.   

He pushes all in. 

Time to double up or go to lunch.  

I don't think he's flopped the flush.  

He must have a heart though right?   

Actually if he doesn't have a heart then this gentleman really has heart.   

I obviously call.   Worse case scenario, I'll have to hit my full house.

He turns over pocket aces, one of which appears to be the ace of hearts.  

Wow I'm happy I didn't raise him pre-flop.  

Lets take a moment to pause and discuss how good I am.  

All of you hacks....pushing all in preflop with your pocket kings and running into aces.  

Oh sure it's a great story.  But why get all your chips in around 20%?  

Why not be like Robert and wait a street to get your chips in when you're ahead 66% to 34%?   

That's the difference between good and great players. 

Good players run kings into aces.  Great players flop sets. 

Incredibly my 66% holds and I win the pot and double up on my first hand.

Before I could even stack my new chips a group of young ladies walked over to ask if I was a male model.

An older couple (who looked like the folks that rail Ivey) inquired to see if they could get me any fresh fruit to eat.    

The tournament director then tapped me on the shoulder to check if my seat was comfortable enough.  

This is what life is like when you're running well.