Sunday, March 23, 2008

Vegas Fact #10

Vegas Fact #10
Caesars Palace won't take any action on the Boston Celtics.

According to their sports book, "If the Celtics win the pro basketball championship, the team playing them will be recognized as the team with the best finish and would be considered the winner for wagering purposes."

Why is there no action on Boston at Caesars?

Apparently the Caesars CEO owns a piece of the Celtics. So due to his conflict of interest, they're off the board. This creates some interesting value for the Western Conference teams because the Celtics happen to be favored to win the East. And assuming the Celtics do win the East, a Western Conference team only needs to get to the NBA finals to collect on this bet!

Contrast this "just get to the finals" journey with Eastern teams like Detroit or Cleveland who not only have to beat Boston in a 7 game series, but then also have to beat whoever comes out of the West in another 7 game series to win the NBA title.

You'd think that with this much larger hurdle, teams like Detroit and Cleveland would be long shots at Caesars to win the NBA title. Not the case. Their odds were surprisingly close to some of the Western Conference contenders.

I see opportunity here.

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