Friday, March 07, 2008

Late Last Night at the Wynn

I call 15 bucks preflop 5 ways with pocket 3's. Flop is a pretty looking Jack,7,3 with two spades. The preflop raiser bets 45. I make it 115. Dude in between us calls all in for his last 42. Preflop raiser thinks. Preflop raiser folds.

The best news is I'm not even up against a flush draw. All this gentleman has is queen, jack for top pair, queen kicker. He claimed he thought I was on the flush draw but the truth is with his small stack (and the big pot) he can't easily fold top pair here. Even with a bet and a raise in front of him.

I'm 98.08% to win.

A jack comes on the turn to give him trips and me the boat. At the time this seemed like a real good card since I hadn't seen his hand yet and he could have been on the flush draw. Yet even with him hitting trips and gaining hope I'm still 84% to win the hand.

The river? The 4th jack comes. Runner runner quads. Poof.

It's an unlikely occurrence but I'm genuinely calm. Rather than think of how unlucky I got, I prefer to focus on what it took to beat me. The guy had to hit running quads. If that's what it takes for me to lose a big pot then that's good poker.

The next orbit I raise to 10 preflop with 5,7 suited. The button calls. Flop comes 6,8,9. I bet 15. He calls. I'm 82.53% versus his top pair. Turn is an 8. I'm now an 84.09% favorite. Yet between not seeing his cards and my holding the ignorant end of the straight, the board looked pretty dangerous. Too many scary cards could come on the river.

I over bet the pot and pushed all in. I WANT the call. He obliges with his top pair, 10 kicker. Fun to think that I don't even need a straight to be ahead of him here. Even just something like ten, jack would have been good enough.

The river? Another 9. He hits the runner runner boat. Poof.

This was a great evening at work. It might sound strange to say but I did my job. In both hands I got my money in exactly where I wanted to.

A session like this is strangely encouraging.

I should have doubled up twice.

The results don't change that.

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