How's the Gambling Going?

When non-poker playing people inquire about my career they'll usually ask me something like:

"How's the gambling going?"

Or the inquisitive:

"Have you been lucky lately?"

I also get wisdom like:

"It can all change on the turn of a card."

This last metaphor rubs me the wrong way because obviously ALL of life can change on the turn of a card. Not just poker. You wake up in the morning and feel a lump. The phone rings in the middle of the night. A tire blows out on the highway. Etc.

Poker actually feels much more predictable to me than life. In poker every time I make a decision I have true percentages and real odds from which to base it.

That's probably not true with many investments. Exact odds? How much will a stock go up? So much of the financial world is subjective. If the advice could be given objectively then no one would ever lose money in the stock market.

But in poker when I can put my opponent on an exact hand then I know my exact odds of winning. And the way I see it that's not gambling.

If I am armed with information of how often I will win then each situation that arises can only be considered either a good or bad investment opportunity.

There is no luck. There is no gambling. Just good and bad opportunities.

I'd like to talk about two such business opportunities from this weekend at the Wynn.

In the first one I held pocket queens and limped under the gun. Loose guy on the button raises to 30 and I call. Flop comes 8 high flop and he pushes all in.

It's the same hand we see all the time. I've got to figure out if my overpair is good. It's always a tough spot. You feel dumb if you fold it and it's the best hand. But after you've played the game awhile you feel even dumber when you call and your opponent shows you two pair or a set.

I thought it through.

I decided to trust my read. I also concluded that he was the type of player who would check here if he had actually flopped a set.

So I called and turned over my queens. He looked at them and grimaced.

Good for me.

I just had to survive two cards.

The dealer put a 10 down on the turn. And my opponent suddenly got all happy.

Then the dealer puts another 10 on the river. Now my opponent starts getting really happy.

Runner runner 10's for quads.

Instead of me taking his stack, he takes mine.

When he pushed all in on the flop and I called I was 91.62% to win the hand.

But I lost.

What can I say? I loved that situation. It just didn't work out.

I don't see getting my money in as a huge favorite as gambling. I felt real good at 91.62% to win. Obviously I would do that again and again. And if I kept losing then I'd just have to lose my money. I felt strongly that I was ahead when my chips went in. That was the result of my working hard for hours waiting for that specific situation and then trying to get as much money in the middle as possible.

For me gambling is reraising all in with a draw. I'm gambling that the other player folds. And if he calls me I'm gambling I hit my draw.

But for me to get all my chips in when I've trapped someone isn't gambling. It's me working.

Backing something that is 91.62% is not gambling. It's damn good investing.

After losing my stack I rebought. I wasn't hitting too much. I made a couple of decent river calls to stay afloat. Doing this gives me more satisfaction than flopping the nuts and winning a big pot. Particularly when I call down someone with bottom pair because I think they're trying to buy the pot. It's not so much about catching someone in a lie. It's more about having the courage to trust my read and call someones over bet in a spot where I could look (and feel) really dumb if they show me the winner.

If they show me top pair then I'm an idiot for calling them down. When they show me Ace high I'm a genius for calling them down. Lately I've been surprised how often these river calls are correct.

I chased a few times with the nut flush draw in multi way pots but did not hit.

I snuck in a few times with small pairs but hit no sets.

And then I had my second big hand of the day. The only other time besides the pocket queens that I was all in. My second big investment opportunity.

It began with me limping in with 5 8 suited in middle position. A woman in late position raised to 25.

By the way there were three women at my table. Two of them were dealers playing on their off day. And the third woman was a rounder. One guy made a joke about how we needed one more woman to "even it out" (since there were four men) and one of the woman dealers says "No more women. There are already too many here. I'd rather play with men." I loved how she wants to avoid other women. Almost like pros avoiding each other in pots at these tables.

After she made it 25 there were 4 callers so I called the extra 20 and saw the flop with my 5 8.

Flop comes 4,6,7.

I flop the straight.

The small blind leads out for $50 with pocket 10's. Amazingly the guy to my right calls.

I'm in an interesting spot. Normally I'd absolutely raise here to charge draws and protect my hand. But I only have a couple of hundred and at this point my stack is not getting anyone to fold.

My smallish stack also means I can stomach playing this hand to the end. If I have a grand in front of me and a third diamond hits on the turn then I probably gotta fold to a big bet. But not with my stack.

If I push all in the woman to my left probably folds. So I actually call here hoping that she either calls the 50 or raises. And if she doesn't raise then I'm just going to get the rest of my chips in on the turn. At this very moment I'm 90.71% against the pocket 10's in the small blind.

A 6 comes out on the turn and it's definitely a scary card. If either guy had flopped a set then he just hit a full house or quads and I'm drawing dead.

Suddenly I'm real happy not to have more money on the table. The small blind leads out for $75.
Incredibly the guy to his left and my right smooth calls again!

I don't think either one has a full house but like I said I'm too short to worry. I push all in and they both call.

Here's the crazy thing. Even though the board paired the 6's I am still a very solid 90.91% to win against the pocket 10's. My odds of winning this hand have actually increased since the flop.

The small blind has 4 outs with his 10's. He needs one of the two 10's to hit. Or he needs one of the two remaining 6's to hit. Otherwise this pot is mine.

And the dealer turns over a 10. Double damn.

I'm defying all sorts of math. It's pretty hard to lose back to back all ins where I'm over 90%.

It's pretty sick. Yet from what I've seen at the poker table on a daily basis it's almost expected.

I stand by what I wrote up top. These hands do not feel like "gambling."

Yes losing twice as a 90% favorite is bad luck. Kind of like getting struck by lightning.

However my job at the poker table is to do exactly what I did. I sit there for hours and find spots to get all my chips in when I have the best of it. And I did that twice on Saturday to perfection.

I should be celebrating.

This was tough mentally because I played some really good poker this weekend.

My decisions were correct. That should be all that matters.

But instead because of the results I feel like I did something wrong.

Life is funny. Just think how I was 90% probable to have a great Sunday.