Notes From The Outside

Your reluctant hero got himself to one of Southern California's card club establishments for the first time since leaving Vegas almost three years ago.

Live poker is much slower than I had remembered.

The first level took decades.

I graduated from college and attended my 25 year reunion before we hit 50/100.

I put on some weight.   

I changed jobs four times.

I lost the weight and then put it back on as muscle.

Then I lost it again.

I had a midlife crisis.  

All the while I kept double checking the time on my phone.

At one point I was sitting at the table, bored out of my mind, chastising myself for such tight play.

I then counted my chips and realized we hadn't orbited yet in the tournament.

How was the play?

Surprisingly good.  Maybe it should be.  It has been eight years since Moneymaker came along.

By this point in time everyone definitely has a strategy.  Everyone showed up with a plan.

Something however was missing from tables I remember in Vegas.

Folks on vacation.

Humans taking a break from the pit games.

Gentlemen looking for action and willing to drop some dollars to get it.

This type of player was just not there.

No, to travel to Bell Gardens, California at 4pm to play in a rebuy requires the belief that one knows what they are doing.  The belief that one actually has a shot at winning $30,000. 

And while it's true that I've been away from the game for awhile, apparently all of the characters are still the same. 

When those writers I've hired to edit this blog entry for me get to work, we can have them include descriptions for each type of player I saw at the table.  You know. So that you can fully enjoy my experience of having been there.

I do want to comment on how cruel some of the players were to the dealers.

I can't recall ever seeing it go this far at a poker table in Vegas.

Apparently the California card dealers are not as well protected as their Vegas cousins.

There were a few older ones who were decent but the younger dealers were constantly receiving player abuse, which only made them more nervous and make more mistakes.

I really wish I had filmed some of the interactions I witnessed with my camera as these guys displayed perhaps the best argument I've seen to date for legalizing and regulating internet poker.

(Well other than letting adults do adult things in the privacy of their own home).

These guys let everyone know that there are sick cruel demented people who do not know how to treat others in a public setting.

Which is exactly why God invented internet poker.

So I don't have to sit next to these folks in person.

If only the U.S. Congress could see what I saw.

The horror!  The horror!

I Can't Help It If I'm Lucky

Following up on the last post, here was my play:

I took half of my bankroll and put it on Miami for game 3 at+120.

I took the other half and put it on Dallas at +130 for the series.

The fact that Miami won game 3 let me breathe.  I showed a profit regardless of what would happen the rest of the way.  If somehow Dallas defied history and won the series, I would look like a genius.

Or at least very lucky.

As we know from poker, it can be very easy to confuse the two.

What do the NBA Finals and the 2-3-2 Format Have to do with Your Retirement Plan?

We are all going to be old soon so let me be brief. 

I am not a big fan of the 2-3-2 format used in the NBA Finals.  Why switch over from the 2-2-1-1-1 to the 2-3-2 for the final round?  The 2-2-1-1-1 is far more intelligent, incredibly more fair, much more reasonable, clearly more likeable, and has better hygiene?*  But rather than sit here and talk about how David Stern could make the NBA a better place, lets actually do something for the world by focusing on how to make you money based on the outcome of his NBA finals.

The first step is to get in your car and drive to Vegas if you can make it there before game 3 starts Sunday night.  Immediately.  Go.  You can read the rest of this on the way during rest stops.  In fact if you can't get to Vegas in time to bet on the game then there is no point reading the rest of this article.  So technically speaking, no one should still be reading.  Those who can make it to Vegas should already be in their cars.**  And those who cannot should stop reading as well as reading further will only frustrate you when you see how much money you would have won by taking advantage of the incredible value being offered.

Here's the scoop:  Since the NBA gas gone to this painful 2-3-2 format, when the series is tied 1-1 the team that has won game 3 has gone on to win the series all 11 times.   For those of you playing along at home that's an 11-0 record for the game 3 winner

The leap of faith your financial adviser is asking you to take is to understand that the winner of Maimi at Dallas game 3 Sunday night will go on to win the series.  Sure seems possible, plausible, and dare I say believable.

I will not tell you who to pick.  We do not want to make lines move.

What I do, want to do, is help you maximize your profit.

If you like Dallas do not take them at -140 in game 3.  Grab them at +130 to win the series.  This fits nicely in your portfolio along with the +160 to win the series you have from before it started, along with the ridiculous +250 Mavs series line you grabbed after they lost game 1.

If you are a Miami guy bang the Heat at +120 for game 3. I know.  Nervous Heat fans are sitting there thinking they don't need to win game 3 to win the series.  And I am here to say 11-0.  The Heat better win game 3 if they are going to win this series.  What a gift to get them at +120 for a game they are going to win if they are going to win the NBA Finals. 

To review:

At this moment in time we can get Dallas +130 to win the series.  Heat +120 to win game 3.    In essence there is no favorite.  Only value.  

A week from now one of these is going to seem like it was too good to have been true.

But it was.

At this moment in time.***

You're welcome.


*The 2-3-2 format requires players to stay at least 3 nights in the same hotel room. 

**I do not endorse the reading of this while driving on the I-15 or any other road that leads to Vegas. 


*** As long as the team that wins game 3 continues to go on to win the series.

3.5 Weeks Later

Hmmmm.  I sure wouldn't mind playing me some internet poker this weekend. 

What a great way to relax, have some fun and enjoy myself. 

Maybe go deep in a tourney and win some money. 

Oh sure I could play live and visit one of LA's card clubs. 

Or drive a bit further and do some damage in Vegas. 

But I gotta admit it sure sounds nice to just stay at home and play.