How Do You Handle The Bad Moments?

10:02 PM. Friday night. The Bellagio.

Their Five Diamond 25k Main Event is underway and as I walked through the tournament area I couldn't help but feel the excitement. Cable television has turned these guys into stars.

Poker was never meant to make people famous. At live tournaments the players still have to walk through the crowd to enter and exit. To get to the bathroom or go on break. As a fan it's an awesome opportunity to get up close for people watching. And unlike NBA courtside seats, walking into a casino and attending a poker tournament is absolutely free.

I love watching poker players deal with celebrity. It entertains me because you know it's not why they got into poker. People go into acting to become famous. That's not why they start playing poker. A poker career is strictly about making money. Or at least it was before ESPN showed us all Moneymaker.

It can be hilarious to watch someone like Daniel Negreanu try to navigate his way through photos with his fans, interviews with the press, and chatting with other players to get to the bathroom in time during his break.





The Bellagio's main poker room is absolutely packed. I sign up for some 15/30 limit and 2/5 NL. It's gonna be awhile. I take a walk down to the sportsbook.

10:45 PM. I'm still waiting but at least I've found some good entertainment. Over in Bobby's room I see Patrick Antonius, Doyle Brunson and Eli Elezra sitting 1,2,3. Phil Ivey sits across the table in seat 7. Ming Ly to his right in seat 6.

Gus Hansen just walked into the room but chooses to sit at another table. I take a closer look and see only 3 players sitting there. Don't recognize the first two faces but the third guy is Barry Greenstein. The three of them are holding cards in their hands. Looks like Chinese poker.

10:50 PM. A new 2/5 table opens and I'm called as the 10th and final player.

Let the record show that I have my lucky hat on. If you had a lucky hat you might use it all the time. But in my case I hardly ever wear it.

Why is that? I don't want to abuse it. I'm scared to wear it too much and destroy the myth. All I know is I wore it tonight which meant that I really wanted to book a win.

11:24 PM. I hear my name called again. They're offering me a seat at 15/30 but there are a couple of bad players here at 2/5 so I stay. I'm only up 15 bucks having won the single hand I've raised with preflop.

11:34 PM. Under the gun I raise it to 20 preflop with 4,6 suited.

The best thing about raising preflop from under the gun with 4,6 suited is no one thinks you have 4,6 suited.

I've raised one hand in my first 44 minutes at the table. As far as I'm concerned everyone should think I have a big ace here. Or at least a medium pocket pair. But no one should think I have 4,6 suited.

Certainly not the dealer who asked me I just sat down and needed to pay a blind, even though I hadn't gotten up. (This specific comment comes about once every 4 months and it's a helpful reminder that I'm not playing enough hands).

So after me and my "ace king" raises preflop I get 2 callers.

The flop is a thing of beauty if I may say so myself. I get my flush draw courtesy of the ace and queen of diamonds. If I were writing about this hand, this would be just the way I'd script it. Oh, except I'd hit my flush at the end.

I bet out 45 representing the ace. I'm happy to take it down now and if they call I've got outs.

The worse case scenario ensues as the button reraises me to 145. Damn. It's another 100 bucks to stick around in a pot with 150 in the middle.

I'm getting 1.5 to 1 which means I need win 40% of the time for a call to break even here. If he's reraising me with an ace, my odds of winning this hand are slightly less than that (roughly 38%). So a fold is fine too.

But this was a call and not a fold for me based on previous observation. I'm pretty sure this specific guy will pay me off if another diamond comes and I hit the flush.

So I call the 100 bucks chasing my self created implied pot odds. If I miss the draw I'm only down 150. I can stomach that investment.

I call and check to him in the dark.

The turn comes and it pairs the board with another queen. With my having already checked in the dark, the onus is on him. He checks behind me.

Sweet. He's not being tricky. He's not slow playing. He doesn't have a queen. He only has an ace.

Sure I'm still hoping for a diamond, but I might be able to take this pot away from him on the river even if I don't hit my flush. I just need to convince him that I have trip queens.

The river brings an interesting card. It's not a diamond. It's the 3rd queen.

I have to act first. Hmmm. I wanted to bet. But suddenly having 3 queens on the board destroys my confidence to bluff here against this opponent.

A good player could fold an ace to a bet here. But I'm not convinced I can get this guy to fold his full house.

Having the 3rd queen on the board makes it less likely that I have a queen. I've watched plenty of bad players call off their entire stacks and lose to quads in this spot with the full house.

They just don't want to be bluffed. That's way more important to some of them than paying off quads. With a full house they almost feel obligated to call. This way they can have their "I lost to quads in Vegas" bad beat story. To them it's well worth the money.

RELATED QUESTION: How come the whole "What happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas" campaign doesn't include telling bad beat poker stories? If anything should "stay in Vegas" it's this stuff.

I'd rather hear what happens behind the scenes in TAO on New Years Eve. Well not really. But I'd say I'm more curious about Vegas clubs than I am to hear which 2 outer came this time on the river to win a pot.

I'm tired of hearing about them. I'm tired of talking about them.

So...uh... yeah...I'm really not sure this guy is a good enough player to fold here. I suppose I was already showing alot of faith in his game hoping he had it in him to fold his pair of aces to the trip queens pre-river.

Now that he's "improved" to a boat, I decide I sure don't want to risk 350 bucks to find out how good he is at laying down a big hand.

We both check and he says "I'm sure we chop."

I say "You've got me" and he shows me his ace jack off.

Some of the better players at the table are surprised that I called the $100 raise on the flop without having an ace or a queen in my hand.

I'm almost tempted to do my "he had my ace out kicked" joke but instead I keep my mouth shut. I'm not going to be funny nor explain why I thought I'd get paid off.

No.

All that matters to me is this hand confirms that the gentleman in seat 10 loves any ace. He overplayed ace 6 earlier. This hand he called preflop with ace jack. I'm gonna catch him.

I wanna add that I actually like his raise on the flop with the ace jack. This is better than calling 3 bets in a row. It's possible that a good player might reraise the flop with ace jack to simply get a feel for whether or not his ace jack is any good or not.

But I don't think he thought this way. I think he raised me because he has no regard for kicker. I think he would have fired again on the turn had the queen not come.

It's my hunch. So although I lost the hand, I was excited to see him with my chips. Unlike a few of the other players, he seemed like my best chance to win them back.

11:38 PM. I take down a pot from the blinds with 7,8. I flopped an open ended straight draw and called a $35 bet three ways because it was from this one dude who bets at every flop. However he usually slows down on the turn and river. And this time it happened again. When the river came out small, I bet 50 bucks. I was a little scared of the 3rd guy in the hand, but bet out since he hadn't shown any aggression either. They both mucked.

11:40 PM. I get all in with ace king on an ace,2,7 flop against what I'm hoping is a flush draw. Turns out dude has a weak ace and hit two pair. This was one of those hands where I wouldn't have gone all in against a bigger stack, but this guy was so small so I felt comfortable gambling with him.

The best part of the hand emotionally was I didn't pay any attention to the outcome. I was too busy jotting down notes at the time.

After the dealer peels off the river, my opponent looks at me and says "I have two pair."

I take a look at the board, notice the king on the river and say "Me too."

Usually I tend to get my money in there with the better cards. So I am usually the one getting sucked out on. What a pleasure it was to do it to someone else!

Did I mention I'm wearing the lucky hat?

11:41 PM. The very next hand I lose 15 bucks with 2,8 suited.

Why am I playing 2,8 suited?

Because my main man Doyle talks about poker and rushes. Doyle says he likes to play the next hand after he wins a pot to give himself the chance to go on a rush. So I limp and call a $10 raise with my ugly 2,8 suited to give the rush a chance to happen. It doesn't. This time.


11:57 PM. I raise preflop with ace jack suited, get 3 callers and flop two aces.
In this spot it can be tough to get more chips out of people.

What to do?

If I check it looks like I'm slow playing trips.

If I bet I may force everyone to fold and kill my action.

One play that sometimes works with trips is the overbet. People will often fold to a small value bet. But an overbet here will occasionally get paid off by some suspicious player who can't understand why the bet is so big. Their conclusion is there's no way I could have the ace, since I wouldn't bet so big and kill my action with the ace.


12:10 AM. I raise once again with ace jack and this time the flop is a scary 8, 9, jack. All spades. I've got top pair but no spades and don't want to play a big pot.

Even if I'm ahead right now what chance do you give my top pair of holding up against 3 opponents with this board?

I don't like to continue bet in this spot. Unless I bet large enough to make people fold. But I don't want to play a big pot here with this flop. I'd almost rather continue bet with ace king into a rag flop than put more money in here with top pair.

I don't want to bet, get reraised and have to fold. I'm also not in love with betting, getting called and having to deal with a scary looking card coming on the turn. The problem is so many cards look scary. Where do we begin? Any spade delivers a flush. Any 5,7,10 or queen makes a straight likely, An 8 or a 9 puts me behind an opponents trips. And with 3 other players in the hand, that's alot of outs.

I decide my most comfortable option, the decision that helps me sleep best at night is to check. It's a weak play and I may have to give up this hand on the turn. But I'm not here to try to win every pot. Just the big ones.

Lets see what everyone else thinks of this flop.

Good news. One guy takes the bait and bets 35. It's the exact same fellow who won't let a flop go by without taking a shot at it. Which means he may not even have a draw here! 35 sounds perfect to me. Even better news arrives when I see the other 2 players fold. Whew.

Turn brings out another jack. I check again. This time he bets 50. I call again.

Check calling has almost given me position on my opponent. By checking to him I am letting him bet the hand for me, while still having the option to raise.

The river is a rag and I check one last time. I think I have the best hand but I think he folds if I bet. I give him the chance to bluff. If he's missed his draw it might be his only way to try to win the hand. He gives up and checks it down.

It would have been real interesting if he went all in. I can't say I'd call. He could have flopped a straight. Although I will add that I felt nicely protected from him making a big bet like that (even with a straight) because of the board pairing.

If he goes all in it either means he has a full house....or missed his flush draw.

Usually I give myself crap for not playing more aggressively but in this case I think I got him to bet that 50 on the turn by my check calling. I'm not sure he calls there if I lead out and bet 50.

12:14 AM. I'm getting lots of playable hands tonight. Lots of big aces and suited connectors. On this one I picked up ace king and just called a preflop raise to 20. An ace came on the flop. Preflop bettor checks so I bet and was called by the same guy from earlier who called preflop and reraised me on the flop with the ace jack.

This is exactly what I've been waiting for.

I make value bets on turn and river. He calls both. I show my ace king. He shows his weak ace. He looks at the board and says to the dealer "Chop" since we both have the aces and 10's but the dealer pushes the pot towards me and my king kicker.

12:22 AM. I'm feeling good about my reads at this table tonight and playing more hands. There are just no aggressive players here so I can get away with controlling the pot size.

There's been alot of action like this in my first 90 minutes. My id wants to go home and party. "Our work is done here. We made plenty of money."

And it's tempting to listen to him because like I wrote earlier, I really want to book a win tonight.

However my superego doesn't want to leave a good table.

My ego comes up with a compromise:
"Why not stay, tighten up and fold until we find a good spot? Just be calm and wait patiently for opportunities to present themselves."

Hmmm. Pretty good idea.

But before I can thank my ego, my super ego chimes back in with the whole "Shouldn't this be what we are already thinking every time we sit down to play poker?" argument.

Wow that superego is annoying. I know he makes some good points. But damn there is something grating about his style.

At this point I believe the dealer asked me "So does this mean you are staying?"

12:28 AM. I win again with ace jack. Amazing. I go weeks without winning with ace jack. I've gone months. Years. Would you believe decades? It's true. I didn't win once with ace jack at all in the 1980's.

Yet somehow someway this is the 3rd time tonight I've won with that crap hand. This victory parade began by flopping two pair on a straight and flush draw board. I got not action on the turn after betting the flop.

12:31 AM. An "Ouch" moment. I see the flop from the big blind with 10,3 and post turn the board is: 6,10,10 queen. Earlier when I flopped trips I mentioned the overbet in this spot since a smallish bet screams value. The larger bet seems to get called just as often because it makes people suspicious.

So what do I do? I overbet the pot with my trips and it absolutely works. I get a call from a guy with a pocket pair. I guess he doesn't believe I have a 10 (or a queen for that matter).

The river brings an 8 and he bet out 40 dollars. Well there you go. I guess he has 9,jack for the straight. I shake my head and show him how smart I am by telling him that his 9, jack hit.

And here's where it got interesting. Based on his reaction, I don't think think he has the straight. He genuinely seemed to not notice that the 8 filled the straight.

Hmmm. Well I can beat two pair here. It's only 40 dollars more and now I'm real curious. I'm gonna call the 40. It's one of those calls that is more about tuition and entertainment than value. I don't expect to win. But now I want to know what hand beat me.

Well, well, well....my man turns over pocket 8's. He filled up on the river. Wow. Huh. Lets not forget he called the overbet on the turn with on the 10,10 queen board. I wasn't happy to lose the pot but I was happy to be sitting with this guy.

This hand got me thinking about Chip Reese, who passed away recently. Chip was one of the greatest poker players that ever lived. Maybe the best. Where do we begin?
The guy was intelligent. Knew it was good for the game to be friendly and polite. Never taunted other players. Played with dignity and class. And most of all, he consistently won in the biggest games. What more could you ask from a poker player?

I've admired Chip Reese ever since I first started studying poker and there was one thing he said that really stuck with me.

I'm paraphrasing here, but Chip said that the key to being successful at poker is all about dealing with the adversity. And from my minimal experience in this world, nothing seems more true.

Everyone is great at poker when they're winning. That's when it's easy to play your best game. But the majority of players don't handle it as well when they're losing. Most people get off their game. They chase. They stay in with second best hand. They bluff off their chips.

It's rare to find people who play just as well when they're losing. And that's been the biggest challenge for me to overcome. It's part of why I take a time off after bad sessions. The game is always going. Having your mind right is the key.

I've really tried to focus on this emotional (rock) aspect the past few months. Not to crack when things get tough. To get more patient. Feel more relaxed.

I try to recognize the challenge. I try to feel good about not going on tilt.

It becomes "Robert you just had 3 big pairs cracked in the past hour. I bet that would screw up most players. I'm curious to see how you handle it. This is a spot when most people would lose the rest of their money trying to get even."

Discipline at times like this is what separates the bad from the good, and the good from the great poker players. Everyone cracks at some point. However for a professional poker player the key is to be far away from the table when it happens.

12:54 AM. I get involved once again with the same any ace gentleman who has dominated this entry and my evening. He raises to 25 preflop and I call from blinds with ace queen off. Flop comes queen high with a flush draw that I have none of. But make no mistake. I have a pair of queens and in some parts of the world we call that "top pair top kicker."

Me and the other preflop caller check to the ace guy. He reaches for chips. He's been underbetting his hands all night but this time he fires out a very healthy 75 bucks. Damn.

This is officially a situation. I've already put myself in a bind by calling a preflop raise with ace queen. And it seemed like good news to flop the queen.

If he just made a continuation bet with ace king he's in alot of trouble. However the queen on the flop doesn't seem to bother him. I'm not sure he has the courage to make a continue bet as large as 75 with just ace king.

This makes it quite possible he could have pocket kings or aces. It does happen.

In previous hands he wasn't this aggressive on the flop and here he is definitely trying to protect his hand. Just like a big pair would do.

I suppose he could also have a flush draw. Suited ace king with the nut flush draw could definitely bet 75 here and feel good about it.

What's a poker guy to do?

I could reraise here. If he agonizes over the decision then I'm ahead and he's folding. If he insta-calls then I'm behind his big pair. But either way I'd find out real quickly.

A lay down is fine too. Poker isn't about the cards. Just like I could have won this pot even if an ace or queen DOESN'T come, I can also fold even if an ace or queen DOES come. Remember, I'm not entitled to win just because I hit the flop.

I ask the gentleman how much money he has left. He has some hundred dollar bills in front of him and I need a rough estimate to make a decision whether or not to continue here.

I wonder if asking him how much he had left makes it seem like I'm on the draw. Almost like I need to decide whether or not it's worth it for me to chase.

I call the 75.

The turn is interesting. It doesn't fill up the flush but leaves us staring at a 7, 10, jack, queen board. If he has ace king he just hit a straight. If he has kings he's still beating me as well.

I check to him. If he bets I'm folding. He checks behind me. Unfortunately this doesn't tell me too much. It's likely he has a flush draw. It's also possible he has the ace king is slow playing his straight. The only hand I can imagine I'm beating here is if he raised preflop with something like pocket 9's.

And then just when you thought it couldn't get worse, the nightmare river comes.

The ace of diamonds.

Not only does it puts the flush out there, it also means I'm now losing to any king.

I check and he bets 125.

Best of all he starts talking to me.

He tells me that I'm too good of a player to call.

He's right.

I fold and say "Show me a king." Even though from the way he bet it, I think he may have the flush.

A hand or two later he says "I should have kept my mouth shut and just bet 25."

"For 25 I would have paid you" I say.

"I know." he says.

"Absolutely." I said.

And it's the truth. For you guys. For my readers. I'm not sure we're at the point yet where I'm gonna spend $125 for you when I know I'm beat, but for 25 bucks I'd have happily called so that you could see his hole cards.

12:59 AM. Guy raises to 55 on button. I have big pair and smooth call from small blind. Big blind smooth calls too! 165 in middle and I flop top set in the blinds.
I usually check here cause I'm weak and skinny. And perhaps it makes sense to give the raiser a chance to bet. But there's a straight flush draw on the board. I'm not giving free cards with $165 in the middle. It's fine to take it down now.

I have to act first. What I really want to happen is for me to bet and get reraised by the button. I lead out with a feeler bet. 95 bucks. Maybe I have top pair and am testing the waters. A call by the button is fine. A raise is better. They both fold.

Far be it for me to complain about winning a 165 pot but of course greed is here to say he wanted to check the flop. Of course greed doesn't want to answer the question of what he does when the straight or flush comes on the turn and our opponent raises our bet. Yes flopping top set and watching everyone fold sucks, but it's so much better than another "this is how my set got cracked" after school special.

You know what? Forget I said anything at all. Nice hand.

1:03 AM. Minus 45 dollars with queens. I bet preflop. Flop came jack, 5, 5. I bet again, got called and didn't put another chip in the middle. The genius with the 5 in his hands doesn't bet the flop or turn, but waits until a second jack comes on the river to take the lead and bet this hand. This sure would have been a nice time to have held a jack. I fold my queens and he shows me the ace 5!

These are the players I play with. There are many times when playing poker for a living seems like a ridiculous profession. This isn't one of those times.

1:10 AM. I just lost on the river for the 3rd time tonight and I'm feeling all good inside about myself because I haven't gone on tilt.

1:21 AM. Another big hand with the any ace guy. It's Groundhog day all over again. I raise to 20 with ace king and he calls with sub par holdings.

Flop comes king high and I bet 45. He calls.

Rag comes on turn. There are no straight or flush draws. I bet 85. He calls.

A harmless looking river follows, against an opponent who won't go away with top pair regardless of his kicker. So I fire the 3rd bullet. This time 125.

He looks like he wants to fold. He goes into the tank. He's shaking his head "no." He looks upset. He does not want to call. But then, after a minute of this he grabs the rest of his chips and pushes all in.

Usually when I watch this happen it means I'm beat.

Usually when people take too much time, and act weak, and then reraise, they are strong. Usually.

And if this guy has more chips left then maybe I fold. He could have hit two pair. It's possible.

When I look across the table his all in only seems to be less than 100 more. And if this is true, I'm obviously calling. But before I call I ask for a count. It's something I've learned to do. All it takes is getting burned once. You see, I had an experience earlier this year where I called a river bet because it looked like my opponent didn't have alot of chips. And then I found out that he had larger denomination chips mixed into his stack.

That ain't gonna happen again.

And when this guy went all in from across the table part of his stack was a few different colored chips. They turned out to only be $10 chips but they weren't familiar to me. And if they suddenly turned out to be 500 or 1000 chips I can't say I'm calling here.

So like someone doing their job, I asked for a chip count. However when he heard my words he must have thought I called because he turned over his hand to reveal king 8 for a pair of kings. 8 kicker. (Thank God he didn't get lucky and hit the two pair and make me deal with that scenario).

However him revealing the cards turned into a mildly strange moment because I hadn't said "I call" yet. I was still focused on finding out exactly how much more I had to put in.

I wasn't slow rolling him but suddenly felt like that because I have this poor guy shouting across the table at me "What do you have?" but I'm ignoring him and trying to focus on the dealer counting out the chip stack.

It all happened pretty quickly and this hand finally wiped out the any ace guy.

He said he was going to the ATM and coming back, but he didn't return within 45 minutes.

It was time to go home.

Overnight Sensation

Most of the things we want in life take years to come to fruition. Human beings love immediate gratification, but not too much happens overnight.

There's no one moment in time when you wake up and suddenly become the person you always wanted to be. It's all small steps. Each day can only build on the days that have come before it.

It's similar to watching a bankroll grow. Playing at my level I can't make 100 grand today. But I can make 500 a day for 200 days and that's 100 grand.

It would take alot of time and hard work but it's completely doable. Kind of like that old Steven Wright joke about how "Everywhere is walking distance....if you have the time."

I took a break from hold em and played some 7 card stud this week. If I had to rank the HORSE games for myself, 7 card stud would not be at the top of my list. I've definitely felt more comfortable in the past playing hold em and omaha. Makes perfect sense - I have way more experience playing those games than stud.

For what it's worth - I've never read any stud literature. I couldn't tell you what the top ten hands are. I'd guess the best starting hand is 3 aces. When playing 7 card, I probably make basic errors that any stud specialist would laugh at.

However when playing stud this week, I dare to say that it suddenly felt like I knew what I was doing. It was like waking up and suddenly knowing how to speak a foreign language. It's almost like I already spoke French (hold em) and some Italian (Omaha) and was now finally understanding Spanish (stud).

Hold em, omaha and stud are all romance languages. They're all still poker. No matter which game you play there are odds and percentages. There are still going to be players chasing draws versus made hands. There will still be bluffs and value bets. Good players and bad. Rocks and Maniacs.

And what made me feel like an overnight sensation was noticing the other players making obvious errors. I guess that's because they weren't necessarily stud errors. They were poker errors. And I play poker.

(Meanwhile as a math guy, it turns out I dig the 7 card! When is the stud revolution coming?)

The other experience that inspired this blog entry was my doing stand up tonight in Vegas. I hadn't told jokes onstage in 3 years. The 3 years part seems crazy to me because comedy has always been such a large part of my life. This is the longest break I've taken since I was 16 years old. It's who I am.

So I finally got back up there last night and it felt real good. I saw the experience differently. Maybe the key for me was my having such low expectations on what would come of it. I certainly wasn't expecting the experience to lead to anything careerwise. I just had fun.

When comedy is your day job, there are plenty of worries and questions. What is next? Will they like me? Will I be asked back? How am I going to eat? Will the bookers book me? Will the casting directors cast me? Shouldn't I be writing right now?

Other than the writing part, a comedian is always relying on other people. It's part of the reason why I transitioned myself over to a career in poker. Playing poker was instantly freeing for me. To finally not have to rely on anyone else. To not to need to gain anyone's approval.

Last night at Second City I wasn't selling anything. I wasn't trying to get on late night television. I wasn't doing anything other than sharing my point of view. It's the reason I got into comedy in the first place. To be funny. Not to try and become the neighbor on a sitcom.

After the show people were complimentary. They hadn't seen me do stand up before. I've only completed 3 levels of their school, so in that regard I'm an overnight sensation.

What they don't know is took me 16 years to get there. Just like it only took me 4 years to realize what the hell is going on at a stud table.

Please don't correct my publicist when she insists in my bio that both things happened overnight.

This Is How I Think

A good friend called me up during the Steelers-Patriots game on Sunday afternoon to ask for odds on a two parlay prop bet he wanted to create. I guess I'm the guy you call when you need to know that kind of information.

What was his two team prop bet?

New England going undefeated at 16-0 and Miami going winless at 0-16.

He wanted a price on BOTH events happening.

I hung up the phone and quickly searched online for some odds. I googled myself into a parlay calculator and was able to determine that a two team parlay for the perfect and imperfect seasons prior to this past Sunday's games should pay 1.9 to 1.

However the Dolphins had already lost to the Bills that afternoon so clearly the payout would now be less than 1.9 to 1. If the Patriots were to go on and defeat the Steelers, I determined that the Monday morning post week 14 odds for this parlay would pay somewhere in the 1.5 to 1 neighborhood.

So I called my friends back to tell them that 1.5 to 1 was fair value. That's approximately where I would set the odds if I was sitting there live with them.

Turns out that they had no one to bet with. You see, my buddy was actually sort of hoping that maybe I could place this bet for him in Vegas.

Right now. In the middle of the Patriots game.

"Right now? How am I going to that?" I ask.

It's not like I can just walk into any sportsbook and immediately start haggling for parlay odds that includes the outcome of a live game.

I suggest that his best option for grabbing this bet immediately is on the internet. Multiple sites offer prop bets on both the Patriots and Dolphins win totals. And reasonably priced I might add.

"How do I fund one of those accounts?" he asks. Oh yeah. That's right. We're still living in 2007 when our government was confused about internet funding for a couple of years.

But my friend wants his action. His next move is to ask me if I'll bet them.

No. I don't want this bet.

I don't want to bet that the Patriots are gonna lose and I have no idea if the Dolphins can win a game. They looked terrible today.

If I were going to take the other side, I'd only do it with an edge. For example I'd take the other side here at 1 to 1 odds, but that's because 1 to 1 odds aren't fair to them. Since the true value is 1.5 to 1, why should my friend accept a lower 1 payout for something that should be valued at 1.5?

The answer is: BECAUSE HE WANTS ACTION.

So there it is. My friends are now the proud owners of a 1-1 bet saying that both the Patriots go undefeated and the Dolphins go winless.

If either event doesn't happen I win. If both happen they win.

This morning I ran the latest updated odds through the parlay calculator and we're at 1.4883516483516485 to 1.

As a math guy, I can't turn down getting 1.48 for something that is only worth 1.

This wager is also an example of why I think of poker as investing rather than gambling. Yes I am gambling on the outcome. And yes anything can happen. But if you are going to give me 50/50 odds on something that occurs 60/40 in my favor, I will take that bet. Every time. That's what I call investing.

This edge may not seem like alot but it's why they build casinos.

The Miami Dolphins remaining schedule is of no concern to me. I have no idea if they can beat Baltimore this Sunday. I have no idea if they can beat the Bengals in week 17. I am not a football prognosticator. All I know is I just bought something expensive this weekend for 1x that was really worth 1.48x.

Let the hedging begin.

WPBT 2007 Holiday Classic

I played in the "World Poker Bloggers Tour" Holiday Classic today and had a great time. I can't remember the last time I laughed that much playing poker. Maybe I've forgotten that poker is a game and not always business.

The event took place at the Venetian but had the warm feel of a large home game. If anything the folks involved were too nice.

I arrived late due to some Saturday afternoon Strip traffic, and when I finally found my starting table, there was a dude sitting in my seat.

Apparently he hadn't played any hands. Before I could ask him to check his ticket, he gets up, mumbles something about his table number being wrong, and walks off.

I have no idea if he was legitimately confused or just trying to sneak his way into the tournament. I've watched people sit down at the wrong table plenty of times. It's common. Usually the person involved takes out a tournament receipt, and uses language to communicate ideas with others to fix the situation.

You know, something to the effect of: "Oh is this table 13? My tournament entry receipt says table 31. Guess I got it backwards."

I think the guy should have faked it harder and pretended like he had an excuse. Mediocrity is everywhere these days. Everyone is half assing it. Even the dudes taking your seats.

This felt so similar to going to a sporting event and finding guys who don't belong in your section sitting in your seats. And when you enter the row and get near the seat they just stand up and without saying anything move like 2 rows over and sit down again.

If this guy really wanted to impress me, if he really wanted to show me his courage and his heart, he would have taken another seat at our table. Just gotten up from my chips and sat down at another stacks.

If he was bluffing by sitting down at the table then I guess we can say he got caught. Yet the move wasn't negative EV. It's not like he got reported.

Whoever he was this gentleman would have loved remaining in seat #5 because I ran real well.

Today we're gonna define running well as hitting a runner runner flush to pass an opponent slowplaying a set. That's always a good time. You can yell at him if you want for not betting the flop but he was just trying to get paid. I don't blame him. Our table was tight.

These players were real careful. They wanted to last. I figured this could work to my advantage since I didn't care too much if I busted out early. I hadn't flown in for the big weekend.

So I opened up my game plan and got more aggressive. Usually I script my first 20 hands at the table but I threw out the playback and lowered my starting hand requirements.

In my first few years of playing poker tournaments I used to hate playing the early levels. But now that I'm more comfortable at the cash games, I appreciate the small blinds and big stacks. It's like a great ring game. The rather large M enables me to raise preflop with many different cards and try to out play everyone post flop.

Later on in tournaments when the blinds are huge, it becomes real difficult to see flops. The small pairs and suited connectors are hard to play. But at 25/50 these hands are quite effective and bring me joy to look down at and see.

At 25/50, I raised it preflop to 175 from middle position with 10,7 suited. Guy on the button checks his cards and looks like he wants to raise me but he ends up just calling. There is no doubt he has a stronger hand than me. It's either an ace king or the kind of medium pair (jacks) that doesn't want to see an ace or king flop.

Flop brings the 6 and 8 of clubs. I got my flush draw but I also backed into a gut shot straight draw. This gives me 3 more outs than I had hoped for. I continue bet 375. Opponent calls.

Another small club on the turn gives me a 10 high flush. I don't slow down. I bet again. This time 750. My opponent raises me to 1500. I'm not folding so pushing is an option. His miniraise screams big club. He also may not believe I have the flush and thinks he can still win the hand if an ace or king comes on the river.

I just call the 750 more. We're early and I can lay it down here if another club comes on the river. Just like a cash game.

The river brings the 9 of clubs. It makes both our hands.

As far as he's concerned, he's just made the nut flush.

And of course I'm thinking the same thing. Only difference is I'm right.

I put on a small show just in case. I'm "the guy at table 13 who hit his baby flush on the turn, but just got passed on the river by someone holding the ace."

This means I act disgruntled, subtly shake my head and tap the table. The whole thing is mild.

And it's real easy for me to believe myself. I could easily feel this way. Why not? Getting outdrawn was what I expected to happen. Wasn't it?

Meanwhile some of the best times in poker are when you hold the nuts and get to sit back and watch your opponent decide how much he's going to value bet into you on the river.

Here my opponent bet 1500 with his ace flush. I had 4725 in front of me and made it 4500.

This began a strange sequence where he asked me how much I had left, but then didn't reraise with what he thought was the nuts. He just threw out his chips and called. He never said "raise."

Looking back on it now, this call here is probably him being nice! Not wanting to knock me out and end my day. I don't think he really ever saw it coming.

Neither did the dealer who pushed the pot towards my opponent's ace. I had to tap the table and point to my cards to get the dealer to redirect the chips in my direction.

This hand made me a big stack early on and allowed me to play way more hands than I should have. It didn't make a huge difference in the outcome of my day but it was sure fun to get involved.

One stressful moment for me was seeing a 2,2,7 flop when I held pocket 10's. All these bloggers are maniacs with the 2,7. Makes 2's and 7's on flops sort of scary.
I bet continue bet the flop but knew that it was roughly 50/50 I was about to get reraised. And the best part is knowing that my opponent probably wouldn't be bluffing.

The hand that first got me in trouble occurred at 75/150. I raised it to 475 in middle position with queen 9 suited. Johnny Hughes called in late position. One of the blinds joined the dance party.

Our flop was a King, Jack, 8 rainbow. The blind checked. I probably continue bet 2 out of 3 times here. This was 1 of the 3 times when I check. You see, I've got Johnny Hughes behind me. And what I've noticed is that Johnny Hughes will not bet his hand just because it gets checked to him in position. He's not some 18 year kid at Turning Stone. He an old white guy from Texas. He doesn't bet when he misses.

I know that if Johnny has a king he will bet it. And if he's missed he will check.

I will find out everything I need to know. If he checks I can probably take the pot down with a bet on the turn.

So I check. And Johnny (with what I believe is an ace) checks behind me.

The turn brings the miracle gutshot ten. I've hit my straight. It's almost not fair.

There was a good chance I was going to bet anyway. But now I'm legitimate.

I bet 500. Johnny Hughes calls. The blind folds.

Johnny calls? Hmmmm.

River is a rag. Johnny Hughes has 3000 chips left. I have almost 10,000.

The only hand that beats me is ace queen.

I bet 1000. Another value bet.

Hughes does his "Oh what the heck" shrug and throws in 2000 more. He's all in.

Damn. He's got the ace queen.

I consider folding here and saving the 2000 chips. It's the pro move. I don't think Hughes would reraise me with any other hand. I think he just calls me down with queen, 9. I am beat.

But how the hell is everyone else supposed to know how smart I am if we can't all see his cards? So I bitterly tossed two thousand dollar chips into the middle of the table and instructed Hughes to "Show me your ace queen."

And that's exactly what he did.

I think that's what's known as "an ego call."

So my earlier chip buildup was for naught. I was back down near the starting level, except now the blinds were larger. I hung around through 100/200 and 200/400 levels and watchied my M get smaller and smaller.

I was moved to another table where I was seated across from CK who I know from New York City. No one in the tournament was having more fun than her. She bluff reraised with 2,7 and showed when everyone folded.

Her t-shirt said "Asian Jew" and no one appreciates the ace jack like she does. Win or lose, it's always a big hand. In fact my only regret from this weekend was not showing my ace jack to CK when I won a hand with it at her table. After seeing how much the ace jack means to her, I can now say that it bordered on selfish of me to keep that information to myself.

Despite not winning too many hands I was still sitting at the table through the second break. I had gone cold for an orbit and whittled down to 1300 chips. Blinds were now 400/800 with 75 ante. I had one hand left in me and it's going to have to win at showdown.

Times are desperate. I've got to go with any two cards. So what is the first hand I see after the break? Pocket Kings.

I'm about to be big blind in 2 hands so it looks like I'm pushing with any two cards. Any ace. Maybe I got a small pair. Yet somehow I happened to wake up with a real hand.

Yet they all folded. No one had a hand they wanted to show down. It went all the way round to the big blind. Sitting there was a nice guy named Otis who I'd chatted with on the previous break.

Otis only has to call 500 more to win 3250. He tells me he has to call in that apologetic way people do when they don't want to knock you out of a tournament, but math has given them no choice.

I agree with Otis that he must call with any 2 cards. Yet I don't fear elimination,. I need chips. If I win this pot I'd have 3750 to shove in on the next playable hand which is alot of fun at 400/800 blinds.

If I can win this pot I love pushing at this point. Putting pressure on the medium stacks when I only have like 4 or 5 big blinds. That's actually the part that sucks the most about getting knocked out with 6 tables to go. Sure I want to win money. But I also don't want to leave because this is when the game tournament first starts to get real interesting. It ain't a cash game anymore.

Otis turned over ace 10. I turned over my kings. I think we were both surprised by how strong the other was.

He probably expected me to have something like ace rag. I certainly didn't need Kings to push all in.

And I figured he'd have something like queen, 7. He certainly didn't need ace 10 to call.

The first ace came on the flop. Another came on the turn. And I left after the river.

Call Me Tex

I didn't get to the Bellagio Thursday night until 11:45 PM, but I was excited to play and prepared to stay as long as necessary. I ended up having an amazing session. Not amazing good. But amazing opportunity. I played with some crazy gamblers. They weren't stupid. Just crazy. They made the game good.

I sat there till 4:40 AM waiting patiently for my spots. Opportunities kept coming up for me but nothing completed. My made hands didn't hold up. My draws never got there. And despite my tight play, no one respected my bets. It's insulting to lose hand after hand. Doesn't anyone see how unfair this is? Can I speak to the general manager please? Is Bobby around?

In 5 hours of play, I won one hand at showdown.

I know what you're thinking. Why didn't I leave earlier? Why didn't I leave at the 2 hour mark? Or 3? Or maybe even after 4 hours? Why did I stay at a cold table for 5 hours?

Excellent question.

My answer: the quality of play was so poor that leaving felt irresponsible.

-One gentleman did not know if his flush beat a straight.

-Another fellow pushed all in with a set on a 4,5,6,7,8 board.

He wasn't making a move. He didn't see the straight. If you had to declare your hand he would have lost the pot. He was surprised when he chopped.

No. I can't leave this table.

This poker session reminded me of watching boxer Randall "Tex" Cobb as a kid, specifically that Larry Holmes fight where Tex got beat up so badly, Howard Cosell swore he'd never announce a boxing match again.

Like Tex Cobb, I took a few too many bad beats to the head. Like Tex, you gotta admire my heart and like Tex, I got a strong chin.

My boxing ring was this poker table and boy did I get beat up. There were a couple of moments where I almost left. But then the game would improve. A bad player wins a pot and gets alot of chips. Or a few drunk friends sit down and it's hard not to stay.

In addition I've been bugging myself for months that I need to be logging more table hours. That's my biggest self criticism for the Vegas year. I hate to think that the reason it doesn't work out is not because I'm not winning, but rather because I'm not playing enough. So for me to leave a good table after only a couple hours of work feels lazy. No matter how few pots I've won.

I'm not going to do the usual session report here because that would be 5 hours of hand histories with me losing. And I don't need to relive that.

I'd rather focus on how I got my money in there last night. I was real happy with that part. I had some excellent chances to win big pots. But when the results aren't satisfactory I can't (or don't) feel as proud of the work.

So for today I'm going to go the other way with it, and just let it go.

Back to the Bellagio

The chaos at the Bellagio continues. I'm not sure this photo does descriptive justice but...



...I hadn't seen every single table in use before on a Tuesday night. I waited for close to an hour to get a seat. I was hoping to play 15/30 but the first available spot was 2/5 no limit, so there I went.

While waiting I wandered around the room and checked out the different games. At this point in the Vegas Year it blows my mind how many faces are familiar to me.

Every time I sit down I recognize people. I can literally see their faces and tell you specific hands I've played against them. Sure it makes it easier to already know their style although you'd figure that we should all be playing against the tourists. Not each other.

That said, I am way past the point of fearing these regulars. In fact there are some full timers that make the game really good. They sit down and start raising immediately.

There are other full timer grinders even tighter than me. I can often steal pots from them with reraises on later streets. They don't want to play a big pot with top pair any more than I do.

Anyhow here's my Tuesday night session....

10:36 PM. My first orbit (from the cutoff seat) I raise it up to 25 preflop and get 2 callers. Flop is 7,7,7. I bet 25. Loose Israeli guy to my left calls. Other player folds. Turn is a rag. I bet 40. Israeli guy calls. River is an ace.

Now what you may not know is I have quad 7's and that ace probably either just killed or enhanced my action.

What to do. I considered checking. But in the few hands I've witnessed the Israeli guy is more likely to call than to bet. He plays too many hands but he hasn't shown any aggression once the flop comes out.

So how much to bet?

I decide he's probably not calling any bet here without an ace. I raised preflop so it's likely I could have just hit. I go the other way with it and overbet $200.
Since it's gonna seem obvious from my preflop raise that I have an ace, I figure I'll charge him 200 bucks if he also has an ace and wants to "chop" the pot with me.

I could have bet smaller (maybe 80 bucks or so) to try to get some value out of him if he has a pocket pair and doesn't believe me. But without an ace in his hand it's real hard to picture him calling any nice size bet here.

(And after watching him play over the next 4 hours I dare to suggest he held something as weak as king queen on this hand. Seriously. There would be multiple times I watched this gentlemen call players down on the turn and river with only king high. He even check raised with king queen on an ace king flop.)

10:51 PM. Another hand against the same loose player. This time I've raised preflop with pocket 10's and he's calls with queen 3 suited. Flop is 5,5, king. I bet 30. He calls. Turn is a queen. We both check. River is a 3. We both check. He shows the queen 3 an takes the pot. Nice hand sir!

11:01 PM There are a few $10 straddlers at this table. On this particular one 3 players call the 10 bucks in front of me. I look down at ace king and raise to 45 from the small blind. Everyone folds.

11:03 PM. I limp with 6's. Loose guy behind me makes it 10. Another genius makes it 20 total. I call and fold after seeing a king queen flop. My set comes of course on the river after I'm long gone. At this point I am plus 61.

11:26PM. Loose Israeli guy raises to 25. I'm gonna fold my 5,6 suited in big blind but we get 2 callers so I throw another 20 in the middle and see the flop.
It's an intriguing 2,7,8. Loose guy bets 100. It's too much. I think long and hard and fold. He clearly has an overpair. I want to gamble with him but not here, not now. He's the type of player who will eventually lose his whole stack with just a pair. No need for me to shove my chips in on a draw with the worst of it. If I hit a set here he'd pay me off. I fold and he shows me his pocket 10's.

11:28 PM. I reraise in position and take down a pot with nothing. I only mention this hand (for myself) because there is no way I win this pot a year ago. My read on the other player wouldn't have been as strong. There are many times when I still feel like such a novice at poker. This wasn't one of them. When I get it right like this and play my opponents cards rather than my own, poker feels like a completely different game.

In the beginning all poker bets seem the same. Now I can actually watch a guy bet a 10 jack flop and think to myself that he specifically has queen 9. Rather than lets say ace jack. I have no idea how. It's just something inside the body and mind.

11:42 PM. Israeli guy raises to 25. One caller. I pick up pocket queens in blinds. I can call or raise here. Against this guy I call. Flop potentially destroys my future with a king. But everyone checks. The board paired on the turn. A rag hit on the river. By now I'm doing the betting and Israeli guy calls me down with pocket 4's.

Him calling my bet on the river with pocket 4's is the exact reason why I didn't feel the need to gamble with him before with my straight draw. He will pay me off when I know I have the best of it.

11:52 PM. Wow. 4 players all in preflop. Israeli guy takes it down. He has over $1000 in front of him now. I am genuinely excited to see him win the pot. I sure ain't going anywhere soon. And of course the way poker works I had limped on this hand with ace 4 suited, folded to a $35 raise that preceded all the all in's and then of course the board goes runner runner 4's on turn and river. I would have taken it down.

12:09 AM. I'm up $149 and bored out of my mind. This feels like grinding. Probably because it is. I can't believe I've only been playing 90 minutes. Feels like 8 hours.

12:11 AM. I pick up 2,3 offsuit in middle position. A guy bets in front of me and his chips roll towards me. I am going to muck but an Asian man to my right tells me I should play the hand because the chips were rolling to me. I wonder what poker books he's read. I fold anyway and thank the universe when the flop doesn't come out 2,2,3.

12:27 AM. Nothing new to report. Up 142.

12:41 AM. My most interesting hand of the night. I've got 9,7 suited in the blinds. (Same hand I had when I hit quads.) Flop comes 8,10 ace with two of my suit. I think that's what you call a straight flush draw. I check because there is a grinder on the button who bets every single time it gets checked to him in position. I want him to bet so that the rest of us can call and build the pot. He obliges. I think it was 20 or 25 bucks. 3 of us call.

I miss on turn. This time we check and he bets 80. I have to act next and I think a long time. I am genuinely considering my options. However what I also notice is the grinder seems worried about my pause. I guess I might be wondering what to do here if I really was ahead. So I let him suffer a little bit. I finally decide to call. But these seconds were crucial because I now think I can take down this pot no matter what comes on the river.

The river comes. I miss flush draw. If I had just called the 80 quickly it would have seemed like I was drawing. But since I took so long it's believable I was already there. I bet out 200. Grinder is all pissed off. He tells me that I hit two pair on the turn and folds.

12:46 AM. Opponent won't let go of the previous hand. He keeps asking me to confirm his suspicion that I had two pair. I tell him that I bet the river because I put him on a diamond flush draw. This doesn't make him happy.

It seems win/win for me. If he folded an ace to my missed draw he could go on tilt. And if he really did have the flush draw then perhaps he's scared that I read him so well.

This whole encounter was particularly gratifying in that he was one of those guys who is always talking, offering the table his reads, and feeling the need to show everyone how smart he is at poker.

This hand also begs the question - if he really did have the flush draw, was it bigger or smaller than mine?

12:50 AM. He brings up the hand again. I guess it's the hand that keeps on giving. This time I respond by asking him how big his flush draw was. I hope this implies I had one too.

12:55 AM. I raise preflop with ace king to 25 and get a few too many callers. Flop comes ace high to give me top pair top kicker but it's all spades and I don't have any. I follow through with a 35 bet to see where I'm at. The truth is I shouldn't have made this bet. Why? Because I've picked up a tell on the Israeli guy next to me. It's almost absurd but this guy keeps giving off reverse tells. So if he connects with the flop he starts to shake his head "no" as if he's unhappy.

Thus when the flop came out with the 3 spades I looked peripherally to my left and see the guy shaking his head. This alone should have made me check.

But I didn't. Because I wanted information. (Even though the truth is I already had it.) Israel guy talks for a minute about how he should fold and then calls my 35. The guy after him reraises to 135.

Israeli guy pushes all in. Other guy calls. This was for like 700 each.

After turn and river the other guy shows his flopped jack high flush. Israeli guy slow rolls and then shows a king high flush.

But we already knew that. Whether or not we wanted to believe it.

Funniest part was how proud the Israeli guy was of the slow roll. It was completely intentional. He even said "I wanted him to think he won." Exactly sir. And that's why it's bad etiquette.

Israeli guy (who was already real loose) now has 2 grand in front of him. He's playing every hand.

PLEASE LET ME FLOP SOMETHING AGAINST THIS GUY.

1:11 AM. It's clearly this Israeli guy's world and we're all just playing in it. He takes a minute or two to decide what to do preflop. Each time. Cause he's too busy talking and telling everyone how they take the game too seriously and it's driving some players crazy. I don't mind. He can talk my ear off all night as long as he keeps playing every hand.

1:14 AM. A new guy sits down to my right says he's been to the Wynn and Venetian tonight and how those casinos are so much tighter. Exactly buddy. Exactly. It's the reason we're all sitting here after Midnight on a Tuesday night. Damn it sure feels like a Saturday.

1:17 AM. First loose call in awhile. Only costs me 15 bucks. Up 177 on night.

1:28 AM. Up to 214 after I raise preflop and win on flop. What's been awesome about tonight is that for the most part I'm winning small pots. I haven't hit any sets, flushes or straights. My usual money makers. Tonight I've had to fight and claw for the smaller pots. Makes me feel like a real player.

1:31 AM. I sniff out bluff and call river bet with pocket 8's on overcard board.

1:44 AM. Up 269.

1:56 AM. I'm thinking of leaving but a rich looking couple in formal evening ware just sat down. They look like they're dressed for the prom or a wedding or some activity that doesn't take place in a poker room.

2:11 AM. I turn the nut flush draw with my ace suited. Dude bets 20 from the blinds. I call (without getting proper odds) only to see 5 people call behind me! So now not only am I getting proper odds, but I'm guessing someone may also have a smaller flush draw. But I miss on river and that's that. The Poker Gods are making me earn tonight. Not much is being given to me.

2:16 AM. Damn. Israeli guy just gave away ALOT of money after the river with pocket 7's on an 8,8,8 board. Of course the other guy had the 8. But Israeli guy should have known this once he got reraised on river. You can't call here. Not for someone's entire stack. You just can't. I sure didn't need to see the cards to know who had won.

2:21 AM. Remember the guy sitting to my right who thinks he's such a great reader? I'm passing the time amusing myself by giving him false tells everytime I bet. And I'm cracking up inside watching him over think my moves. This may not be the best example but I just limped in under the gun with 7,8 suited and purposely knocked over my stack while betting. I then observed him him notice my nervousness, smile to himself knowingly, and fold. By the end of the hand the board had paired 8's giving me trips. There was also an ace on the river perhaps killing my action. After everyone folded to my river bet, he says to me "Show us the full house" as if he knew I had pocket aces. And so I reached down to my cards, said "Which one do you want to see?" and turned over an 8 for him.

2:33 AM. I give away $25 taking a shot on the flop. Tight player calls me. I see him instinctually reach for chips on the turn before remembering to check and let me bet. Sure he could be putting on a show for me by reaching for chips but I've got 10 high and am done with putting chips in on this hand. I fold when he open bets river.

2:37 AM. I flop a flush with my 10, jack suited but get no action. Even the Israeli guy has slowed down after losing to quads. It's time to go.

Take It to the Limit

The Bellagio was an absolute madhouse this weekend. It's the December offering of their Five Diamond Classic Tournaments.

Their main event is $15,400 to enter but most of the preliminary events are in that $1500 to $2500 range.

Temptation (or is it greed?) whispers in my ear: "Go enter one of their satellites and win your way in." There are one table sit and go's as well.

Of course what the voice inside my head doesn't mention is that winning my way into a larger tournament wouldn't be enough. I'd still have to go on and actually cash in the bigger tournament. There's no disputing that this path would be the quickest way for me to make alot of money. But that's only if it went well.

It's also the path that most likely earns me NO money for my day. That's just being realistic.

So I forgo the risk/reward fluctuations of tournament poker, and choose the solid conservative route. Good old cash tables. They tend to be real good around big tournament poker.

What does this mean? Well skipping the tournaments means I absolutely positively won't win 6 figures and buy a new Mercedes this week. That just ain't gonna happen at 15/30 or 2/5 no limit.

But on the bright side, it's more likely that my wife and I can eat sushi "for free" tonight.

Which odds do I prefer?

An 80% chance we'll eat sushi vs a 1% chance I buy a new car.

"And how is your rainbow roll?"

As for how I pay the sushi check, most of my decisions at limit poker are simply "Am I going to get check raised if I bet my top pair after that scary card just came out?"

Here is one hand that sums up the limit experience.

I raise preflop in early position with ace king suited (diamonds) and get 8 callers.

Yes. 8 callers. (Let the record state that one guy did fold).

Flop comes 9 high with a flush draw. Unfortunately it's two hearts. There is one diamond out there.

I don't think I can be ahead right now but for entertainment purposes I bet. 7 of the players call.

Turn brings another diamond. Two of my suit. I suddenly have a real live genuine flush draw. Thank you very much. Here I was betting with no credibility and now I have some credibility.

I bet again and this time I am more than happy to see 3 players call. The last player to act raises. I reraise him and make it 3 bets. Two of sandwiched players fold. One calls. The reraiser calls as well. (Normally at the Bellagio you might see the reraiser raise again here to punish the sandwiched caller).

The river doesn't deliver me the flush. It does however fill up anyone chasing the alternative heart flush. What could be good news for me is that the river card was the ace of hearts. So although I missed my flush, I do have a pair of aces.

I have to act first. I'm concerned that one of the players behind me has hearts.
I check. They both check behind me. I take it down with my aces.

If I had bet I may have been able to win another bet from someone holding a medium pair. But I'm sure not going to win any more bets from missed draws.

I didn't want to bet 30 on the end and lose 60 (or fold) if I got check raised. I don't play enough limit poker to know if this is "correct" or not, but my read (or lack of) certainly gave me enough impetus to check. I also didn't mind check calling here.

An alternative scenario to consider would have been if I checked, player 2 bet and player 3 raised. At this table, against these weak players I would probably fold top pair here.

These decisions aren't that huge in that it's only 30 bucks if I'm wrong. But these bets sure do add up over the course of an evening. Not to mention a lifetime.

A few hands later I give back 6 big bets when I flopped a set of queens but a dude rivered the flush. However this evened out an orbit or two later when I flopped another set but this time rivered the full house to take down an opponent's flush.

What I eventually figure out is most of these players are satisfied to just limp and call. No one here is raising which is very surprising for the Bellagio.

Basically whenever I have a decent hand I can raise and get more money in there. And whenever I have a speculative hand (suited connectors or small pair) I can get in cheap and see a flop.

If this style of play continues, this table should be a goldmine for me. It's hard to lose money to opponents who don't raise but will call you down when you have the best of it. I am able to take over the betting lead any time I'm in position. I'm able to control pot size and get free cards when I need them.

I have identified three specific players at this table who never raise, but will also never fold when I bet! I can't bluff them off of their hands. But it also costs me close to nothing play against them post flop.

An actual hand history against one of these weak players is:
1- I raise preflop with ace queen. Opponent calls in late position.
2- I flop nothing. Opponent checks. I bet. Opponent calls.
3- I turn nothing. Opponent checks. I bet. Opponent calls.
4- I river nothing. Opponent checks. I have no clue where I'm at. I check.
5- I turn over my ace queen. Opponent stares at the board, shakes his head, and then shows me ace 7 off.

This is NOT how limit poker is played at the Bellagio. Usually at limit I'm dealing with overly aggressive players who keep the pressure on with reraises on every street.

But at this table, on this evening, there were some pretty weak players.

And that can only mean one thing.

"How is your Toro tonight?"

Entitlement

I went to Mandalay Bay tonight. Not exactly sure why. I wanted to play smaller than the Bellagio and I remembered they only ran 1/2 and 2/4 no limit the last time I was there.

2/4 was a long wait so I sat down when a seat at 1/2 became available. It's been awhile since I've played 1/2 and to be honest I'm not sure I can play 1/2 anymore. I just don't play my best. Or at least as well as I play at 2/5. Then again it's a completely different game.

On most hands at 1/2 everyone limps in for 2 bucks. No matter what cards they have. It could be kings. The thing to realize here is that most of these players aren't trapping you when they limp. They just don't know they're supposed to raise. Maybe they're scared of seeing an ace on the flop so they limp. Whatever the reason, this makes playing 1/2 such a different game than 2/5. 1/2 doesn't feel like poker.

My thought for how to counteract all this constant limping is that it might make sense to just push anytime I want to play a hand. Just keep racing. If I run into a monster oh well. But otherwise if I raise to 15 bucks and 7 people call, I have no clue where I stand on the flop. My only real expectation is that I'm now trailing one of the other 6 hands.

So why not keep it simple? I've got good cards? Push the chips in!

Otherwise 1/2 becomes an evening trapped in purgatory seeing $2 flops with 8,10 off suit, waiting to catch a full house. If I'm going to do that with my time I may as well go sit down at the roulette wheel. At least at roulette I know I'm getting paid off when I get lucky.

When I initially sat down the dealer said something about how he's seen me before. I didn't realize this was his way of asking me if I needed a poker lesson. When I said that I had only been to Mandalay Bay once in the past year, he proceeded to explain to me how to play Texas Hold 'em. It took him around 5 minutes. A very long 300 seconds. This was both amusing and painful. However if he was going to treat me like a beginner I wasn't about to stop him.

As for the session I made a few good lay downs. That's the good news.

The bad news? I had to make a few good lay downs because my hands kept ending up second best.

Poker can be strange that way. Like tonight I actually got cards. Preflop at least. But each time things got real confusing once the flop came out. It was one of those nights where I'd pay money to see how a top level pro would handle these situations.

I kept finding myself in spots where I'd raise preflop with a good looking medium pair. But then the flop would bring overcards. And the turns kept offering up 4 card flushes. Or 4 cards to a straight. And I had to either bluff my way out of it or give up and keep folding.

It's never a good sign when you bluff into a scary looking board and you immediately witness pure glee and joy entering into your opponents (sub)consciousness.

There were also two occasions last night where I flopped the nut flush draw and came up empty on the turn and river. I'm plenty used to missing my draws however both times a third player in the hand felt the need to show their inferior flush draw as they folded on the river.

This made missing my draw sting a little more for me. The knowledge that I would have actually gotten paid off on the river by at least one player if I hit.

It should make no difference to me to see their cards. But sometimes it does.

Entitlement kicks in.

Paying Off Sets

I was up in Summerlin with some extra time between two appointments, and as I drove past the Red Rocks Casino, I remembered that I play poker.

I could go to work!

The only game with an open seat was 2/5 no limit. Perfect.

I was the only non-regular at the table. It was entertaining to watch the exchange of pleasantries each time one of the old guys sat down. They obviously knew each other well and must sit there all day.

As was to be expected, these guys were real tight and their play was pretty straight forward. At a table like this it's real easy for me to be the aggressor. They respect raises, so there I was betting and raising. Basically hoping that the one time I got looked up, I would actually have something strong.

Not too much action ensued and it was eventually time for me to go.

My final hand, I picked up pocket aces under the gun. I limped in. The hand before there had been fireworks preflop, and I was hoping history would repeat itself.

It didn't. No one raised behind me and the flop came out 7,8,10, with two of a suit.

I checked, anticipating that I'd be calling a flop bet.

However when a certain gentleman bet behind me, I immediately threw my cards into the muck.

I'm not so sure that I fold here on the internet, but sitting live in person, I was positive he wasn't bluffing. That much I was sure of.

Now where it gets hard for me is that he could have a hand as weak as jack 10 or ace 10, and still make the exact same bet here to protect it. Even though it would be a weaker holding than my aces.

But there are also plenty of hands I'm losing to here. With the flop bringing a flush draw, he'd also make this same bet with two pair, a set, a straight.

Perhaps even if he's holding just a 9.

So I'm beating top pair here. If that's what he's got. I'm also beating a draw.
But I'm sure not itching to play a big pot with just a big pair. I can call and see if he bets again on the turn. I can also reraise him to see where I'm at. But if he calls my reraise (which I'm guessing he will) I'm suddenly playing the rest of the hand out of position, with top pair, scared to put more money in, and still unsure if I'm facing a draw or made hand.

This is one of those moments in poker where it doesn't matter to me if I lay down the best hand. What matters more is I don't go broke against a tight player trying to defend a big pair in a hand where I didn't even raise preflop. All I've lost here is 5 bucks. Do I really want to play a big pot on a 7,8,10 board with pocket aces?

Not against this guy. So my big pair went into the muck. Yet what I find really interesting is if I was playing something like ace 10 suited, and hit top pair on this exact 7,8,10, flop, then I'm probably not going away on the flop. I'm either betting, raising or calling a bet.

Yet with a stronger hand than top pair, a more powerful overpair, I sometimes get overly cautious. It's an illogical strategy in that I'm playing the stronger hand (an over pair like aces) weaker and the weaker hand (ace 10 hitting top pair 10 on the flop) stronger.

To balance this inconsistency out, I could adjust my play. I could hold onto my big pairs a little deeper into hands. Play them more aggressively. Not go away so easily on the flop. Similarly I could play my top pairs a little weaker. Muck them more often when I get a read that I'm beat.

This is a big poker issue for me to resolve because I don't usually make my money with big pairs or top pair. Mainly I try not to LOSE alot of money in these spots.

In psychology, they say we fear the thing that has already happened. I've seen thousands of hands. Mathematically speaking, I know pocket aces is a better hand than ace 10 on a 10,8,7 flop. Yet it often seems that a hand like ace 10 holds up and top pair wins. While pocket aces run into something like two pair. I know this isn't always true. But that's what it feels like.

I'm sharing this concept because it's something I've thought about. I'm certainly aware that it's possible I made a great laydown and that my aces were beat. I don't need to make some sort of grand proclamation set in stone of how to play big pairs post flop. I can acknowledge that each situation is unique.

You want a grand proclamation?

How about:

Just because I see big pairs lose to sets every single night, doesn't mean I always have to fold my big pair post flop.

Just because I've folded a big pair when it was the best hand, doesn't mean I always have to play it post flop.

How far to go with top pair is a very tough question in poker. This topic is actually why limit poker can often be less stressful. Sure people stick around and chase draws and suck out on you. But at least you can happily pay off someone's set with top pair and not lose your stack.

The Homestretch

There are only 5 weeks left in the Vegas Year...



...and like Francis Ford Coppola on the set of Apocalypse Now...



...I have no idea how it all ends.




The only thing I know is Marlon Brandon hasn't shown up yet.

I sit here today and think back to the Summer of 06. Living in NYC. Still playing every day on the internet. About to head out to Vegas for the WSOP.



Before leaving town I caught a Michael Portnoy show with a good friend.



Walking away from the theater, I shared my poker goal.

If all went well in Vegas, perhaps I wouldn't be coming back to New York City. Perhaps I'd stay out West.

Be careful of what you ask for.

I did come back to NYC but only to get my wife and our stuff.

Jump forward 18 months in time and here we are in Vegas. Some days I feel so lucky. Other times the Vegas Year feels like a jail sentence.

I think it's good to remember how we got here.

To (re)appreciate the journey.



I'm not too sure what happens at the end of this year.

But I'm grateful to have grown and learned from this experience.

They're Not The Same Game

I played a couple of limit sessions recently.

I'm not too sure exactly when it happened but something just clicked for me in terms of understanding limit poker. It was honestly surprising to have any sort of breakthrough because I hardly play the game. Yet after being away from it for awhile, this time it made more sense. The aggression. The pounding.

-Figuring out which players defend their blinds and which players don't.

-Figuring out which players check raise you (on the flop or turn) to see where they're at...and which players don't.

-Figuring out which players have the courage to fire 3 straight bullets with nothing ....and which players don't.

And it's obviously so much easier on the stomach to only lose an additional big bet on the end if I'm wrong. No tough decisions for my whole stack.

Limit is a different game and when the stakes are large enough, I like it.

Limiting the bet size makes it easier to play aggressively. There's always a good reason to bet. If your cards have connected you bet because you want to get as much money as possible in there. If your cards have missed then betting might be the only way to get anyone to fold. And if you're on a draw, betting will either get opponents to fold or build a pot in case you hit. Betting good.

When the game limits bet size there's no need to trap.

At no limit I sometimes convince myself that trapping the other players will win me more money in a particular hand. At limit this strategy usually just means I am missing bets.

The strategic differences between limit and no limit are so vast that I find it wrong to call both games Texas Hold 'em. Sure they're both 2 card poker games that share 5 community cards. But they're the same to each other only so much as turkey dark meat and turkey white meat are the same meat.

Sure they're both turkey. But just cause you eat one doesn't mean you eat the other.

I hope everyone has a dysfunctional Thanksgiving weekend.

Happy Birthday Grandma

I called my Grandmother Mary on the phone to wish her a Happy Birthday and she told me how she was knocked out 4th (on the bubble) in an online sit and go tournament earlier this week when her pocket jacks were cracked by 3,5 off.

"Who plays 3,5 off?" she asked me and we shared a laugh.

But it's a fair enough question. Who plays 3,5 off?

Well for starters lots of bad people do. Not only bad poker players.

Bad people.

You know.

Liars and Crooks. Cheaters and Lunatics. Terrorists. Rich People. Actors.

However where it can get confusing for some of us is that sometimes good people play 3,5 off too.

People just like you and I.

Poor people. People with bad vision. Firemen. People with bad short term memory. Peace officers. People with bad long term memory. Doctors. Minorities. Blood bank donors.

To further add to the drama, there is also an entire gray area of people who play the 3,5.

Comedians. Professional Wrestlers. Sperm bank donors. Union members. The National Guard. Short order cooks.

Sometimes even I play 3,5 off.

Mostly it's just a hand for those of us who like a little too much action.

Happy Birthday Grandma.

And It Makes Me Wonder

10:02 PM. Friday night and the Bellagio is packed. The list to play is over 30 names deep. While I'm standing around waiting, a man I've never met before walks up to me and says, "You look tired. You should go to sleep." Not exactly words of encouragement.

10:25 PM. I'm seated sooner than later. Unfortunately I recognize 5 of the faces at my table. Fortunately two of the unfamiliar faces turn out to be bad enough to make the table good enough to stay at.

My first hand is pocket jacks. Mostly worth mentioning because it would be my best starting hand for the night. I won the pot and just like that I was up 60 bucks. I suppose I could have cashed out and bragged about my 60 dollars per minute win rate.

10:38 PM. My ace, 5 of spades flop two more spades but miss the flush draw on turn and river. I still end up winning a small pot with a pair of 5's. However the real shame comes when my opponent shows his king and jack of spades. Talk about a good time to have hit my flush draw. Some fireworks would have ensued and I could have gotten paid off nicely.

10:55 PM. I'm up $90 when I join a family pot from the button with queen 10. I flop nicely: jack, 9, 5. One opponent leads for 15 and three of us call. I miss my straight draw on the turn and this time the blind leads out for 25. Everyone folds. I've only been sitting with this guy for 30 minutes but I am pretty sure of two things.

1- He will pay me off if I hit this straight. Even if a king or 8 comes on the river, he will bet and then call a reasonable raise from me. He doesn't like to be bluffed, and based on his taking over the betting lead on the turn, I think it's reasonable to put him on a hand like two pair.

2- He won't fold if I raise him here.

So raising is out of the question against this opponent. I can fold or call.

I chose to call and hope to get lucky.

However I missed on the river and mucked like a good tourist.

10:57 PM. This time it's minus 50 for me with the same ace 5 suited hand. It's funny to have a second ace 5 suited hand to discuss because I really don't like to play ace suited hands. Especially against any kind of substantial preflop raise. It's too hard to figure out where you are at if an ace flops. I almost prefer the small suited connectors for this reason. But what happened here was I limped in for 5 bucks and then flopped the nut flush draw. So here I was stuck in the hand again.

It was checked around to me on the button post flop and I fired out $20. It's a win/win bet. I'm happy to take it down. I'm happy to build a pot.

I got three callers so I guess I was building a pot.

I miss on the turn and now one of the blinds fires out 25 bucks before I can act. Uh okay. He's ahead and doesn't want to give any free cards.

There's one caller and one folder in front of me. With the nut draw and in position I call too, but none of this matters when I miss again on the river.

And that my friends is how you lose 50 bucks with ace suited.

11:14 PM. Basically the same hand for the third time in less than an hour! I get ace suited a third time, once again flop two of the same suit, but cannot hit to complete the draw.

Lets analyze this mathematically. I've now chased the nut flush draws three times. (Not to mention the open ended straight draw I also chased).

I'm not in love with chasing. But as far as these flush draws went, I should win 1 of the 3 hands. And hitting 1 of the 3 could have made the experience profitable.

Sometimes I will get real lucky and hit 2 (or even 3) out of 3 draws and win a large percentage of money. However very often I will lose all 3 of my 3 trials I'm down money and wondering why I'm chasing.

The voice inside my head reminds us that we had 3 good opportunities to win some nice sized pots. Specifically against opponents whom I believe would pay me off on the river. Implied odds if you will.

Against better players I could reraise these hands on the flop or turn and play some poker.

Against these weaker players I will actually need the better hand to win at the end.

And let the record state that I'm fine with having to showdown if this means they're calling my bets on the end and I'm actually getting full value the times I can hit my hand.

What this discussion eventually comes down to is variance.

How much do I want at the table?

Yes I will win and lose more money by playing more hands. And while folding borderline hands is fine, when I play them I am trusting that I can outplay most of the opponents at my table post flop. But against bad players, when my draws don't hit, it just feels like bad poker.

11:18 PM. I smooth call a $20 raise with pocket 9's in late position. Three of us see a 2,2,8 flop with two hearts. The guy who raised to 20 preflop checks. Guy to my right bets 50.

This is a hard hand to play. Despite his 50 dollar bet, I really think I'm ahead of the guy to my right. I've watched him reraise a few times preflop with strong hands. If he was holding something stronger than pocket 9's, I think he would have reraised the $20 preflop bet. That was just his style.

This makes me think two things are likely. Either he has two hearts. Or he has something like ace 8. And the way poker works he could certainly be holding something as scary at the ace,8 of hearts. I wanna see what comes on the turn.

Meanwhile my bigger worry here is still the guy behind me. My best hope is that he raised preflop with ace king. However his actions could also resemble someone holding a big pair who is about to checkraise the flop.

So I'm hoping to find out more by calling the 50. If the gentleman indeed has an overpair, he will let me know by here raising. And if he has ace king he will fold.

I'm gonna spend 50 bucks to find out where I stand. And find out I do. The initial preflop raiser bumps it up 50 more to 100. Perfect. Thank you sir.

That's the bet of someone holding an overpair. Someone who thinks he wants the call. Someone who thinks he's ahead.

And with a 2,2,8 board his only legitimate fear is that either of us has pocket 8's.

It's far less likely that either of us could be holding a 2.

Before I can fold my 9's, the guy to my right who bet the first 50 pushes all in for 350. I guess I can officially fold now.

After some thought the initial preflop raiser calls. Both of their cards were sort of predictable. The preflop raiser had pocket kings. The all in pusher who bet the flop had ace 5 of hearts. And off they raced.

I think if the board was something like 2,6,8 the pocket kings guy may have folded to the all in since there would be 3 possible sets with that board. But with a 2,2,8 flop it's REALLY hard to lay down pocket kings.

If I was truly a grinder I could have saved 50 bucks on the flop. However in terms of my growing at poker, I was happy to see that the guy to my right wasn't ahead of me on the flop when he bet the 50. If the 3rd player had indeed held ace king, I would have won this hand.

And what good is 50 dollars anyway? What am I gonna do with 50 bucks? Buy groceries?

11:24 PM. It's been a pretty busy first hour. I'm playing too many hands but this is intentional. It's me adjusting my style to fit the table. People are paying people off. I just need to actually hit something at some point. Despite all 4 draws missing and my giving away 50 on that 2,2,8 board with the pocket 9's, I'm only down 128 dollars.

It's also fun to admit that I wasn't satisfied when I was up 90. Why? Because I had no perspective. Now that I'm down money it would be great to be up 90. It's kind of like that Mike Caro line about how "you are ALREADY even." Every time you begin a new hand. You are even. At that moment. There is no up or down.


11:31 PM. I get pocket 9's again but check out of the hand after an ace and king flop. I then sit back and get to watch a third 9 come out on the turn. Oh joy of joys.

11:40 PM. I fold pocket 3's to a raise and reraise preflop, and then watch a 3 come out on the flop. More joy.

11:48 PM. My cards have really slowed down. I'm down 133 and about to pay my blinds.

12:02 AM. Still card dead. Been folding for last 20 minutes. The guy to my right keeps flashing his cards to my end of the table every time he's in a hand. Intentionally. I've never had someone do that before over and over again. But I'm real glad he's showing because he's on such an incredible streak. I've seen him get pocket aces and pocket queens 4 times each since I've sat down. And so when he keeps raising preflop no one on the other side of the table believes him. And why would they? How often can someone really get pocket aces? Once every 200+ hands? Yet this guy really kept having what he was representing. To the rest of the table the truth was less believable than fiction.

12:06 AM. Our table is discussing how to "play the player and not the cards" and our dealer has an interesting suggestion. His recommendation? Go sit at 1/2 and don't look at your cards. Then sit back and try to play the hands completely based on the behavior of the other players. In other words, don't distract yourself with your own cards and whether or not you've hit the flop. Just completely focus on the other players. And obviously at 1/2 the most a mistake here could cost you is 200 bucks. Sounds like tuition well spent to me.

12:26 AM. I've got nothing going here. So much so that I just folded king 10 suited in the blinds to a 30 dollar preflop raise and felt good about myself. Just because I'm not getting cards doesn't suddenly mean I need to defend my blinds with king 10 suited out of position against a tight player If I was running well it's different. But right now if I play a hand I gotta make sure I've got the best of it. I can't play it just because I haven't played a hand in awhile.

12:50 AM. Still card dead. Just had 9,10 suited but had to lay it down after a raise and reraise behind me. These guys aren't making moves. They're getting cards. My stack has dwindled down to the point where I'm willing to overplay a big ace or medium pair if there is money in the middle of the table. The painful part tonight isn't being card dead. The painful part is seeing that there are bad players at my table and I can't take advantage financially.

1:00 AM. Down 319 after I lose to runner runner. I feel nothing. I even say "Nice hand sir."

1:07 AM. I win back half of my loss thus far with 10,8 off suit flopping trips and turning the full house. Why don't I do this every hand? Why do I make poker so difficult for myself? Why don't I just hit a full house every hand?

1:16 AM. The guy to my left keeps raising to 35 preflop and each time I've reraised his bet he's folded. I like being out of position against him and letting him bet my hands for me.

1:25 AM. I limp in again with ace 5 suited. Damn that hand. Big blind makes it 25. 20 more. I'm dying to fold but there are two callers in front of me so I join the dance party. Flop comes ace high which looks good at first. Real good. That is until the big blind fires out $50. Me and my top pair go quickly into the muck. Nice bet sir. No need to look you up here.

1:33 AM. Three hours in and I take a walk down 200. Being down 200 feels a-okay. It's all relative. There will be one hand at this table tonight when I have the chance to double up. I can point out the 3 players it's going to happen against. I can't tell you which one specifically. But I'm definitely going to double up through one of the 3 maniacs to my left. I just gotta wait patiently for the right moment.

1:40 AM. Phil Ivey walks through the poker room and into the upper limit Bobby's Room. There are actually two games going on in there tonight. A 100/200 no limit game....and the Big Game.

Isn't that great that 100/200 no limit ISN'T the Big Game?

The 100/200 no limit table looks like a bunch of rich guys but not necessarily poker players. Our last dealer said he pushed an $80,000 pot to a guy in there with second pair. I just wanna know what hand called him? Bottom pair?

Dealer also told us the Big Game that night was 8 mixed games with 4000/8000 blinds. Looking through the glass I can see our old friend Jennifer Harmon. Eli Elizra. Minh Li.

1:43 AM. Ivey leaves. Maybe he was just picking up money? Maybe the game wasn't good enough? Who knows. All I know is if you're sitting in Bobby's room you probably gotta take a deep breath and sigh of relief when Phil Ivey exits.

Like I wasn't even at the table and I felt more relaxed when he left.

1:48 AM. Two locals at my table keep checking it down anytime it's the two of them in a pot. It's happened a few too many times now and a guy at my table just yelled at them that this is not real poker and then he got up and left. He's right of course.

What keeps happening is the aggressive local raises to 20. Everyone folds. And the other (passive) local calls him and then immediately shows his cards.

What I don't understand is if you don't want to ever play the hand out, why the hell call in the first place?

If you're so scared to play your cards post flop, or you don't want to take your friend's money, THEN JUST FOLD.

I was sitting between them and kept finding myself tempted to play hands just to see what they'd do with a third guy in pot.

1:52 AM. Another amazing display of The Power of Negative Thinking TM. One of the local guys is all in with his pocket aces on jack high flop. The other player puts him on ace jack, and then calls with queen, jack.

These are the players I play with.

How do you put someone on a hand that beats you and then call?

So the turn is a rag and as the dealer peels off the river the local guy with the aces says "Give me a queen!"

And the dealer turns over a queen.

I just can't help myself: "Why did you ask for a queen?"

"Because I didn't want one" he says.

1:59 AM. Down 226 after paying blinds.

2:17 AM. Down 236 after paying blinds.

2:18 AM. Minus 15 on button with pocket 2's.

2:23 AM. I raise to 20 preflop from middle position and get called by the button. Flop comes out 9 high and I bet 40. He folds and shows me ace king. I show him one card. A king. I guess I was trying to stimulate future action by showing him a card that could mean anything. He probably put me on kings. But otherwise he may have been ahead of me. The significance of this hand will come into play 15 minutes later.

2:38 AM. 15 minutes later I limp in with pocket 10's fully expecting to get raised behind me. This is what happens at 2:38 in the morning. People get bored and that leads to players lowering their starting hand requirements, and getting out of hand with their preflop raising. I counter their new found aggression by limping more with my stronger hands to trap them.

The guy to my left, as he has done alot tonight, reraises me. Same guy who keeps making it 35. This time he makes it 20. Both blinds call. It gets back to me.

The button raises too many hands. If he woke up with a hand this time I'm gonna pay him off because I don't believe him. I think I have the best hand here.

I am betting the button raised with rags and that if either of the blinds had a hand stronger than 10's they would have already reraised. So I raise all in.

Button immediately folds and I'm feeling good about taking down the three $20's.

But then the blind (the same guy who showed me the ace king and then I showed the king to) asks me the classic "Do you want action?"

Well sir I moved my wife to Vegas almost a year ago.

It also just so happens that I am sitting in the Bellagio at a poker table.

So one might conclude that "Yes" I do want action.

Lets consider what I might say to him if I had pocket aces. Hmmm.

I'd probably shrug my shoulders and mutter "I don't know."

So that's exactly what I did. I told him I didn't know and shrugged my shoulders. It was close to the truth. I probably want his action because he doesn't have my hand presently beat. But it's also fine if he folds and I win 60 bucks. I don't need to race his big ace here.

Much to my surprise he finally decides to call. Neither of us shows our cards.

Flop comes out king high. Damn. Not a good sign.

An ace comes on the turn. Double damn. Could it get any worse?

A queen finishes me off on the river. What hand can I beat at this point? Pocket 9's?

I look at him, shake my head left and right, and say "You got me."

But he doesn't turn over.

I want to be done with this hand. I show my 10's and I'm not embarrassed. You can all have the information that I repopped preflop at the Bellagio on Friday night with pocket 10's. Win or lose, lets move on.

And then this dude turns over pocket 6's. Huh?

I look back the board.

On the board, as part of that king high flop, was a 6.

Oh dear. He got lucky. He hit his two outer and made a set.

I didn't exactly appreciate the slow roll part, but I still smiled and said nice hand.

The pain of his hitting a set was numbed for me by the fact that I was already losing to any ace, king or queen here. It didn't matter how I lost. Just that I lost.

The hardest part of playing poker is nights like this when being right doesn't mean winning money. At other things in life, usually when you are correct in your work, you gain.

In poker I can make a play like this, correctly read my opponents and the situation and yet still lose money. When my 80% favorite doesn't hold up it makes no difference to my refrigerator that I got all of my money in good.

Do we need to discuss his call here?

I'm not sure I've quoted Led Zeppelin before but "it makes me wonder."

What was he hoping I had here?

He couldn't be thinking too deeply. He probably just wanted action. Wanted to gamble. This must be true because the only hand he is happy to see me turn over is a smaller pocket pair. More likely I'm either crushing him with my overpair or we're racing if I have ace king.

Calling an all in with pocket pair as low as 6's likely turns whatever hand I have into a race. Even if I was making a move with 9,10 suited, it's still the classic overcards vs pocket pair race. However this isn't a tournament. Blinds aren't going up. There really isn't a good reason to call an all in at a cash table with a small pair. Unless you just wanna gamble. Even if you catch someone making a move you're still basically 50/50.

Truth be told, his call with pocket 6's is a DREAM for me. I'm certainly not complaining. I return home from another evening in the poker room, happy with how I got my money in there. Unhappy about how it turned out.

I beat myself up at times but my job at the poker table is only to pick the right times to get my money in there. I can't control what happens beyond that.

There is no justice. There is no fair.

I might have been an 80% favorite here but 20% absolutely happens.

Next hand please.

I Haven't Forgotten About You.

It's quite the opposite.

The truth is I can't stop thinking about you.

However my move cross town and the associated tasks ended up taking more time than I had expected.

I can't wait to get back to what I do best:

Playing mediocre poker and writing about it!

The benefit to having been away from the table for an extended period of time is my tilt level is at 0.

I am at peace with the game and ready to go play.

I don't feel the need to force anything

I am prepared to fold my first hand.

I plan on putting in alot of hours this weekend which means I should have something worthwhile for you to read on Monday.

Unless I'm still sitting at the table.

Slow Poker Week

I tried to play live poker earlier this week but just didn't feel right. I lacked proper focus which was probably due to the stress and anxiety related to moving. So I did what I do best. I avoided the tables for a few nights.

The good news: there is hope on the horizon. We found a cool place to live and it's pretty close to the Strip.

I'm hoping the short commute makes it even more enticing to go to work. I could literally walk to the poker room if I wanted to.

I guess that was always true. How about...Now I could walk to the poker room and actually get there in the same hour.

I also know myself well enough not to declare this "walk to work" as something that is actually going to happen. But it is nice to know that I could walk there on a nice day. You know. To get some exercise.

And if you guys really want to, we could turn my walk to work into one of those sponsored walks. I think the kids call them "Walkathons." I understand that normally you might sponsor someone to walk a certain distance to raise money to fight a disease.

However if my gambling is really important to you, I could do this couple of miles walk from my home to the Bellagio to raise money to put on a roulette number. Or if there are objections to roulette we could "walk" over to the craps table and place it all on hard 4.

As you can see, the specific bet doesn't matter. The most important thing is that I use your donations in some philanthropic way. One of those selfless gestures that makes us feel good about ourselves during the holiday season.

Walk talk aside, I really am looking forward to the shorter commute in the car. When you don't have a schedule it's nice to be able to get back and forth on a whim. Right now we live 15 minutes away from the Strip but in Vegas time that's an eternity. It's real important that I be able to get to the poker table in 5 minutes or less.

So we'll see how this works out. If this house isn't right then perhaps we'll just have to move right into the Bellagio. However I might need to step up in my betting limits if they're gonna let us live in their hotel with our cats.

To Bluff or Not To Bluff

I had one hand over the weekend that would be alot of fun to simulate over and over again just to see all the possible outcomes based on the size of my river bet.

It was pretty simple. I was on the button and had the ace of hearts. There were 3 hearts on the board before the river. One guy bet. Three people called in front of me. I called too knowing that if a 4th heart comes out I could win a nice pot.

A 4th heart did not come out and I was done with the hand.

However when it came time for the river betting, the guy in the blinds was confused and turned over his hand to reveal the 4 and 7 of hearts for a 7 high flush.

The dealer went around the table to see if anyone still desired to bet.

Everyone saw the flush and folded until the action got around to me.

Now here's the big moment. I can clearly see he has a 7 high flush.

If I bet here I am saying that a 7 high flush doesn't worry me.

Or I am bluffing and can only win this hand by betting and getting him to fold.

Either way....What is the correct amount to bet?

Lets say we each have 500 in front of us and there is 100 in the middle.

This is the scenario I'd love to run over and over.

If I push all in does that make this an easy fold? Probably. Then again it also smells like a bluff. After all if I could beat a 7 high flush wouldn't I bet smaller to get him to call?

So how much would I really bet if I did have a higher flush and I wanted him to call?

A pot sized bet like 100?

Perhaps something smaller like 60 or 75 if I really want to get paid?

And if he is a good player perhaps he recognizes that the smaller bet is begging to be called.

Like against some players a 60 dollar bet might get them to fold their 7 high flush more often than a 100 dollar bet. The larger bet often looks like a bluff.

I am usually able to take down pots with smallish bets. It's the big bets that make people suspicious.

There is no right or wrong answer. As usual it depends on who you are playing against. And in reality I didn't know this other player well enough to bluff here. I wasn't sure what he would lay down to.

Some guys refuse to fold their 7 high flush. Other guys will muck a picture high flush to a reraise.

In this case since he didn't lead out with a bet on the river there was a decent chance he folds if I make the big bet. Obviously he didn't feel too strongly about his holdings.

Lightning Finally Hit Me

I was in the right place at the right time tonight. That meant in the big blind holding 4,6 off on an ace, 3, 5 flop. Some gentleman bet $10 and three of us called. A 2 came on the turn. The same gentleman now bets $50.

The button reraises him to $200.

At this point I actually looked back down at my cards to double check what I'm holding because I'm pretty sure this is all too good to believe. I have the nuts. And there are two players betting into me. Wow. They are. They really are. Thank you. Thank you so much.

There really are so many people to thank. I want to thank God. My Wife. The Bellagio. Jerry Yang. The folks over at Warner Brothers and Fox Searchlight. My whole team at Don Buchwald. I want to thank The Blerge. Bobby Baldwin, Ellen Schauben, Joe Orell, Full Tilt, Ultimate Bet, my family, friends and everyone in Brooklyn.

You know what? The thank you list is a little long and I didn't even mention everyone I wanted to. Next time it might be easier for me to just list the 2 or 3 people that I really don't want to thank. Maybe that's how I should handle it. Just mention those people.

So I reraised all in for 462 and the button paid me off. I never did see his cards but I wouldn't be surprised if he was as weak as top pair. From what I had witnessed he was that bad of a player.

Its been awhile since I had a hand like this. A hand with no decisions to make. These are the good times in poker. When the chips just come my way. Almost like I have a magnet. It's not that often that I get paid off in this spot but it's wonderful when it happens.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

I woke up this morning to the sound of my doorbell ringing.

Further investigation revealed a man outside trying to unlock my front door.

This got me dressed.

By the time I got downstairs he was around the back of the house and staring in through the glass doors that lead out to my backyard.

He said he was a realtor.

I'm not sure why didn't I ask him for a business card. Probably because I just woke up seconds before.

Truth be told it didn't really surprise me there was a man standing outside trying to get inside my home.

There has been a "For Sale" sign outside in the front yard since June.

The house has been in pre-foreclosure for roughly the same amount of time.

According to some documents the house may have already been auctioned earlier this past week.

My landlord may no longer be my landlord.

I'm not too sure how much longer we will be here.

I really don't like living like this. Probably not too surprising. Not many people would.

Home is very important to me. I've always liked spending way too much time at home, wherever home may be. And so when this security and comfort is threatened I definitely feel it.

We've looked at a bunch of houses and apartments the past week. We did find one interesting place in a 1960's part of Las Vegas that has some character.

My wife and I also discussed leaving Las Vegas. I don't need to be here. I don't have to live here. Not at all. If we want out here is our chance. And for a few minutes today I think that became our reality.

Yet simply giving ourselves the freedom to leave may have been enough to calm that "get me out of Vegas" feeling.

With the present mindset our best move is to do a month to month or 6 month lease somewhere.

We still have a few more things to accomplish in Vegas.

Our new health insurance just kicked in and we need to let that go for a few months to do COBRA even if wanted to leave town.

I'd also like to rebuild my bankroll regardless of whether or not I'm playing poker full time in the future. This new home will decrease our monthly expenses drastically and hopefully give us the chance to save money.

And finally, and this is the silliest reason to stay, but I'd really like to finish the Second City acting/comedy program that we're doing. Right now we've completed 60% of the process.

If I were a betting man I'd bet that we do not spend next Summer here in Vegas.

But another 6 months might be just about right.