The Graveyard Shift

The "Sports Guy" Bill Simmons occasionally writes his columns on ESPN.com in a format he likes to calls his "running diary."

So with a shout out to Bill, I now offer you good reader a running diary of last night.

10:04 p.m. (PST): I take my second shower of the day in an attempt to wash some of the March Madness off of me. I've been betting the college basketball this week and I've been incredibly accurate. No matter which side I take it manages to lose. When I get into one of these losing streaks it should make complete sense to just stop betting. But I'll also admit I become somewhat fascinated by the streak itself. It's almost like an experiment testing the strength of my negative powers. Or as I like to call it "The Power of Negative Thinking." And I'm not the only loser. I'm only losing money. But I ask what about the kids? These young college athletes giving their best practicing all year long to play in the biggest game of their lives and then little old me coming along 5 minutes before they take the floor, laying some cash on them and poof their dream is over.

10:16 p.m. (PST): I had a good poker session the other night after listening to a Dave Matthews CD on my drive to the Strip. Guess what music was playing in the car tonight?

10:28 p.m. (PST): I pull into the Caesars Palace valet area. A few of these valet dudes work really hard to get a tip from you on both ends. They become almost too helpful. It starts with a legitimate "Do you know where you're going?" (Uh...through the doors with the sign that says Casino?) But then some of them just don't stop. They turn into your own personal assistant.

It got to the point last week where finally asked one guy if he and his co-workers pooled tips. Because of course I'm gonna tip on my way out. This seems like when most people give them money. And if I tip them half now and half on my way out then I'm sort of punishing the guy who gets my car.

His comeback was that I probably wasn't gonna see him again and this would be my only chance to hit him up. Of course ignoring the fact that he's bringing other people their cars that he didn't park.

So if I think it's appropriate to spend 10 bucks on the entire valet parking experience, I'm now torn between giving 5 on each end or the whole 10 when I leave.

These are the questions I struggle with.

10:37 p.m. (PST): I buy in for the 11pm tourney. I'm already "alternate #17" because the usual tournament room is being used for NCAA basketball viewing and they're only using 6 tables that seat 54 people at a time. March Madness is screwing me off the court too.

10:39 p.m. (PST): I get on the list for the 2/5 no limit and 4/8 limit figuring I can play a few hands before the tourney.

10:51 p.m. (PST): I haven't moved up the list at all so I decide to take a walk outside the poker room and people watch the folks waiting to get into Caesar's club PURE. It's such a trip. They have three lines. A VIP one. A second line for woman only. And a third line for civilians which is non-VIPS who aren't female. I think we call these people "guys." I'm not sure which line is my favorite to make fun of. And just think back in the depression people used to wait in line for bread. Now they wait in line to sit at a table that requires you buy a $500 bottle of alcohol.

10:52 p.m. (PST): In case this isn't enough stimulus there's also something called the "Pussy Cat Dolls Casino" going on in the middle of these lines. Two woman dance around polls while other scantily clad women deal blackjack, etc.



I like the fact that you don't have to dance to work for the Pussy Cat Dolls. You can also be part of the team if you're good at math.

Remember back in elementary school when you were learning how to add and subtract and that stripper chick sitting next to you was like "When are we ever going to need to know this stuff?"

Now the teacher can just say to her "When you're dealing black jack in Vegas. That's when."

11:04 p.m. (PST): I go back to the tournament area and they're already up to alternate #11.

11:32 p.m. (PST): Blinds go up to 50/100 and I still haven't been called. Suddenly this tournament seems like a real bad idea. I'm going to sit down and have to start out play with larger blinds and stacks twice my size.

11:34 p.m. (PST): I finally get seated. What follows now is "HOW NOT TO PLAY IN A TOURNAMENT." Not that I want to brag but I think I might have managed to play every hand incorrectly. Here goes.

11:36 p.m. (PST): I start out with my 2500 chips and the first hand I'm paying 50 in the small blind. It gets folded around and a large stack makes a button move and raises to 300. I have pocket 2's. Looking back on the evening now I just wish I had repopped him. I thought about it at the time but I was too concerned with how pathetic it would have felt to get knocked out on my first hand after wasting an hour waiting to play. Folding would have been alright too. But no, I gotta figure out how to play this as poorly as possible.

So I call.

Out of position.

Unless a 2 flops I have no idea where I'm at with the hand.

A 2 doesn't flop. Instead it's a jack and two rags. I can lead out. But I check. He bets 500. I only have 2200 chips left so I obviously can't call. I can raise and hope he hasn't hit the flop. Or I can fold. I choose to fold.


11:46 p.m. (PST): I get Ace King in early position and lord knows why but I mini raise to 200. Maybe I'm hoping to get reraised? The bet though scares everyone and I only get one caller, a woman in the big blind. Flop comes out 10, 9, 2. She leads out with a 200 bet out of position and of course I should let it go.

So I call.

As an aside, it's hard to play much poker in these small stack buy ins. You just have to find a hand and go for it. Of course usually it's one where you've hit. Like the other night I flopped a king with my ace king and got knocked out on the first orbit when someone hit two pair. I definitely had the double up or go play cash games strategy. However in this spot my call makes no sense.

She checks the turn. I bet out 400 hoping her weakness means she was trying to take the pot on the flop and will now give up. Nope. She calls. Now I'm done with the hand.

Another 9 comes out on the river and she leads out for 500. This card also fills a flush which is fun cause it gives me the chance to act and shake my head and pretend I had her till that darn river came out. I say nice hand and muck. She shows ace 9. Yep.

11:48 p.m. (PST): I'm in the blind with pocket 8's. I think I have around 1300 left. Guy in middle position makes it 500. He has around 1000 total. I'm ready to take him on. But then the woman who beat me in the ace king hand smooth calls. Now I'm scared. I wanted to fight the other small stack with my 8's. If I come over the top I think he has to call me. But now she'll be pot committed and getting 2 to 1 on her money. I didn't want to take on two hands that have shown strength with pocket 8's. So I muck. This also maybe could have been a spot for the stop and go. I could have smooth called the 500 preflop and then crossed my fingers and moved all in on the flop since I would have acted first.

Since I chose to muck, of course the flop came out with 3 under cards. And as if this wasn't bad enough, the 8 came on the turn to fill up my non existing set. And as if that wasn't bad enough, when the cards got turned over, the gentleman and his ace king didn't improve. And the woman who smooth called won the pot with her pocket 3's.

11:49 p.m. (PST): I start jotting down notes for my new one man show called called "ALL THE WRONG MOVES."

12:01 a.m. (PST): I've mucked 5 or 6 times in a row. I have one hand left in me. I want something fun to show down with. On the last hand before the break I pick up pocket 10's. Perfect. I push the rest of my stack in. Probably around 950. I get called. Which is I what wanted. It's the old "double me up or set me free" moment. He has pocket jacks. Perfect ending to my show. I fold the 8's to the 3's. And get all in with the 10's versus the Jacks. We can even write in the program notes that "ALL THE WRONG MOVES" is based on a true story.

12:05 a.m. (PST): I exit the casino and decide some fresh air is the move. Menthol fresh. I walk next door to The Mirage.

12:23 a.m. (PST): I look around the room for a loose limit game. I care less about the stakes than whether or not the people are drinking and straddling. I find my game.

12:27 a.m. (PST): As if I needed further proof, the first thing the guy next to me says is "I didn't come to Vegas to fold." Meanwhile that's exactly why I live here. So I can fold.

12:42 a.m. (PST): I'm card dead for the first 15 minutes. It's getting to the point where everyone is noticing that I haven't played a hand. So I raise on the button with suited connectors. 3 callers. I miss the flop but bet anyway. They all fold. It's amazing that you can have a tight image pay off even at lower limits.

12:47 a.m. (PST): The drunk guys have been great. Reraising each others straddles. Doing their best to build pots. Problem is I'm still card dead. Then they decide to leave. I switch tables.

1:06 a.m. (PST): I suck out on a guy wearing a "Love sucks but true love swallows" t-shirt. It was good to win the pot but the best effect of this hand is that everyone at the table saw my cards and now thinks I'm a poor player.

1:07 a.m. (PST): I order a drink to complete my image.

2:07 a.m. (PST): The table has had the same players for the past hour and everyone has made themselves known. The guy to my left in seat 2 never folds his top pair even after straight or flushes come out. The best part is he'll still lead out so he keeps getting check raised when he's beat. He won't be around too long. The woman in seat 5 always calls you down with any piece of the board but never raises. She'll actually make money at this game since the players bluff too often. She's taking alot of pots from the guy in seat 8 who keeps bluffing with a preflop raise once an orbit and then continue betting the whole way. He's folded all 3 times that I've checkraised him on the river. Next time I think I'm just gonna call for entertainment value so I can see his cards. The guy in 9 is just plain bad. He's bought in 3 times.

3:15 a.m. (PST): The players in seat 2 and seat 9 both ran out of money. Other than the guy in seat 8, the remaining players at this table are tight. No need to stay.

3:27 a.m. (PST): I go back to Caesars to play some late night limit. The table is just what I want. Guys are reraising each other in the dark and then going to the river capping pots without looking at their cards. Meanwhile they're actually winning pots with hands like 3,7 hitting a 3 when their sober opponents call them down with ace high.

3:41 a.m. (PST): Drunk guy check raises me on the flop. I ask him if he's looked at his cards. He says yes. I raise him back and tell him that he's far more dangerous when he doesn't look at his cards. I'm being honest.

4:03 a.m. (PST): Guy straddles. I reraise with king jack. Flop comes king, rag, rag all hearts. I have top pair and the jack of hearts against a random hand. This is always a strange moment in terms of power of negative thinking. Like if I'm winning with my kings then I don't want another heart to come. But of course if he has a hand like king, queen of spades then I need a heart to win. So I'm not sure what to "root for" as if this makes a difference. No more hearts comes. I turn over my king jack. He turns over two baby hearts and wins a rather large pot. If I only knew I needed a 4th heart I could have used the power of negative thinking and repeated my mantra "No heart. No heart."

4:41 a.m. (PST): Similar hand in reverse. Guy straddles. This time I have jack, 8 of diamonds. I raise on the button fully expecting the entire table to call. That's the kind of poker we're playing. No fold'em hold'em. Check out this flop: 9 of diamonds. 10 of diamonds. 2 of diamonds. I already have a flush. And if queen or 7 of diamonds come I'll hit a straight flush draw and win one of the poker room's big hand bonuses. Although in terms of winning the hand I'd obviously prefer not to see another diamond come out. Raises are flying everywhere. Eventually on the turn I end up in a raising battle with a guy who holds queen, 9. He has top pair and unfortunately the queen of diamonds. I check and call when the 4th diamond comes out on the river. There goes another big pot.

4:43 a.m. (PST): I begin work on my new one man show called "LIFE ISN'T FAIR AND NEITHER IS POKER" which is based on the last two hands. I've already got the pitch worked out. The latest collaboration from the Producers of "ALL THE WRONG MOVES" and the writers of "HOW NOT TO PLAY IN A TOURNAMENT." Now I just need to get my agent in LA on the phone to pitch it but the problem is that it's 4:43 a.m. Pacific Standard Time. It doesn't occur to me till later that the fact that no one is awake to answer my call only further proves the validity of the project.

5:56 a.m. (PST): We're back in the poker twilight zone. The entire table is drunk, playing every hand, and playing poorly. For the past hour and a half the drunk guy to my right takes the dealer button and sticks it onto his forehead when he has the button. 3 consecutive dealers have looked down to the table and asked "Where's the button?" By this time I don't even answer. I just point.

6:11 a.m. (PST): Drunk guy straddles. Other drunk guy reraises in dark. I call on button with 6,7 suited. We see jack high flop. Everyone checks. We see rag turn. Everyone checks. King comes on river. They both check. I bet because it's the only way I can the pot. A discussion about which strip clubs not to go to ensues between the drunk guys. Dealer finally reminds them that they're in the pot. They both fold.

7:04 a.m. (PST): I'm card dead and it's absolute torture. I'm seeing more flops than I should be because drunk guys keep reraising the whole way with nothing. But I just can't find a darn hand that hits.

7:26 a.m. (PST): I pick up pocket kings. They raise for me. I don't reraise preflop because I don't want to alarm them that I'm even in the pot. Some more betting and raising on the flop. Turn comes. Drunk guy checks. Uh oh. Why didn't he just bet? He bets every other time.

I ignore the message and bet. He check raises me.

He he. It's 7:26 a.m. and I'm getting out played by a drunk guy.

Fine buddy. You got me. I can't fold. But I'll pay you off on the river.

He whispers to me that he has nothing and then checks the river.

Of course everything is telling me to check here. But I bite and bet.

Don't you know it. He check raises me again!

I'm cracking up now. This is fun. I guess I'm the sucker.

I'm obviously committed to paying him off. I throw my chips towards him. And he throws his cards into the muck.

Genius.

7:45 a.m. (PST): I can't take it anymore. Physically I obviously feel like crap. But the problem is more mentally. It takes 5 minutes to play every hand . The dealer has to remind the players who's turn it is and what their options are. Also other than the kings I haven't had a hand in like 3 hours. I'm actually losing money to the other sober player as we battle each other to get heads up with the drunk guys.

7:46 a.m. (PST): I'm putting my chips into the rack. The dealer sees me getting ready to leave and says "You must not like money huh?"

7:49 a.m. (PST): As I'm walking to the valet I reach into my pocket for my valet claim card and feel my car keys. Oh shit. How did they park my car? My stomach drops. Over 9 hours have passed. Was my car towed? How did they deal with this?

7:51 a.m. (PST): I step outside into the morning and see my car parked in the middle lane of the entrance exactly where I left it when I came in. I feel pretty embarrassed. I go and start it up. I guess the good news is I saved the 10 bucks I'd give the guy to go get it.

What I was doing at 6:02 AM this morning.

In an effort to shake things up I played some live limit poker last night.

No limit is certainly my specialty but I spent alot of time playing limit on the internet back during the good old days of 2004/2005. Before Bill Frist and his friends decided it was bad for me.

I was one of those guys multi tabling with 4 windows. Eventually it seemed more interesting and profitable to focus on no limit. But the math part of me still enjoys the game.

Many things have been written comparing the two games.

No limit is art. Limit is science.

I don't have Barry Greenstein's book Ace On The River in front of me right now so I'm paraphrasing here but I believe he wrote something like "In limit I play my cards. In no limit I play my opponents cards."

What he's saying is that in no limit you can get creative. You figure out what you think your opponent is holding and react to their hand. You can make moves (ie. large bets) to bluff them off or to make others believe you hold a certain hand. There is so much more going on in terms of reading players. Actions and reactions.

In limit it's all math. Once you're in a hand in many cases it's usually not correct to fold. You find two good cards and as long as you have the correct odds of winning you stay in there. Since the bets are limited you can't win or lose too much at once. However over time you can earn alot of money since you can continually exploit mistakes in your opponents strategies.

Bluffing has less effect when playing limit since you're not going to get most people to fold their cards for such a small bet. The game is more about building large pots when you hold good cards and winning enough of those overall occurrences to be profitable.

Like if I hold ace king suited and you hold pocket queens and there are 4 other players who called preflop, we both want to be reraising each other to get more money in from the other 4 inferior hands. It's not necessarily that I'm gonna win this particular hand or that you are. But we are both going to make our long term profit by punishing the other players for playing their bad cards. For example we both want to charge a player who holds king 10 and comes along for all the preflop bets. He will win this pot less often than we will. And so we want to get him to put as much money into the pot as possible. That's our job. Then whatever happens, happens.

I have given some thought lately to the idea that my win rate might be more consistent at a limit table. I won't win or lose as much as playing limit. It can get boring and feel like grinding. There's certainly not the excitement of being able to win or lose a whole buy in in one hand. But there's also nothing wrong with getting paid.

So with that in mind I wandered over to the limit section last night. I was prepared to play some 10/20. But the highest stakes offered were only 3/6. I sat down anyway.

And then the fun started.

Usually my no limit tables are full of tough guys. Old men. Professionals on vacation. And internet poker kids in sunglasses.

At my limit table last night were 4 old ladies. 2 handicapped guys. And a boyfriend and girlfriend on spring break. People you'd actually want to be friends with.

At my no limit tables there's always an intensity. People staring each other down while taking way too long to make a decision because they think they're at the final table of the World Poker Tour.

At my limit table everyone was laughing. Drinking. Having a good time.

You haven't really had fun living in Las Vegas until you've been check raised on the river by a tiny little old lady who you can barely see over the table.

In my first orbit I lost two big pots. I had second best full house and lost to the best full house held by this Russian woman from NY who I guess I shouldn't have reraised again after she reraised me the second time.

Then on the next hand I lost with my trips and a queen kicker to trips and a king kicker held by another gentleman.

Inside my head I immediately began to mock myself. I can't even beat a 3/6 limit game.

But this second hand spoke volumes. He reraised me with trips even though there were flush and straight possibilities on the board. In other words, I was playing with poor players.

Time would make me a profit. And it eventually did.

As the night went on the game got livelier and livelier. As it became 1 or 2 am I was the only original member at the table. We were now full of 20 and 30 somethings. We were doing shots of tequila.

At the no limit table I don't drink. Here, I suggested we order a second round.

Negreanu always talks about the importance of having a good time at the poker table to try to relax your opponents. This is so true at limit. No single bet is gonna kill anyone. You don't want a tight table of people folding. It's 6 freaking dollars. You want everyone to be having a good time. Playing way too many pots. Playing incorrectly.

You want the table theme to be "Of course I'm gonna call you the whole down with my gutshot draw. And occasionally I will suck out on you. But don't worry. You can call me with crap the next hand and win it back." Limit rocks.

Inevitably when you play this way and everyone is drinking and 6 people are seeing every flop hands like pocket aces have absolutely no chance of holding up. All of the big pots I won last night were always with the worse starting hand. You need to hit BS to win at these games. At higher limit money levels less players see each flop. And so good cards have a better chance of holding up. There's alot more raising and reraising to weed out the pack. Not here.

Around 3 or 4 am the game officially crossed over into the twilight zone. All the responsible kids left. The drunk ones stayed. And more joined us. In fact one guy, a doctor who had left an hour earlier came back to the table with a hooker.

This really happened.



The best part is she bought in to play.

I had been trying to leave for hours and desperately wanted to go home and go to sleep but now I just had to stay. For you guys. And of course for my bankroll.

She was great for the game in two ways.

Number one she put on a show. She started sex talking everyone. She showed the table her breasts. Now I might normally feel bad for someone like this but she was so freaking comfortable in who she was and what she was doing that she made it okay.

And number two she played every single hand. She bet or raised every time the action came to her. She kept firing off lines like "I tip the valet 20 bucks, of course I'm gonna bet 6 dollars."

She also wanted to keep going all in and thus she complained often ("I hate that rule") about the 3 dollar preflop limit.

She made the game good.

At this point I was playing any two cards. With this kind of action you just have to see a flop.

I kept going to the showdown with her if I hit anything at all. Some of the other players at the table were scared of her. But I figured all I needed to beat was a random hand.

The first hand I flopped top pair but she beat me when we she hit her gutshot straight on the river. For some reason she didn't bet it after betting every other street chasing. I think she didn't know she hit a straight.

Then I got hot and won three other hands where she helped create gigantic pots for me. I should also give a shout out to the two drunk guys to my right who were reraising each other preflop without looking at their cards.

The best one was me holding ace 3 in the big blind. Flop came out 3,3, rag. She bets, drunk guy raises. Repeat. The three of them bet it all the way to the river. On the river I checked to her and she bet. This time the drunk guys both folded.

I check raised. She called me down with 9 high.

This is what I've become.

I'm check raising hookers at 3/6 limit poker at 6:02 am.

This could have gone on all day as far as I was concerned. Lets order some coffee. But it all fell apart after she won a big pot from one of the drunk guys who then threw a tantrum. He insisted she was colluding with the guy who she came in with. The floor guy was called over. She insisted that she wasn't colluding. She said she was saying "sexy stuff" to him. Then she gave a few examples. But this was too much to handle for the drunk kids.

So the drunk kid then verbally attacks her with some comment. He asks how many guys she's slept with. Come on dude. You lost a pot at 3/6. Get over it.

But he can't. He goes on to say he wants to buy her for 5 dollars. I want to mention that when I was getting my car at the valet I saw her leave in a brand new BMW so his estimation of her price was probably as good as his poker game.

The gross part though wasn't this woman's sex talk but rather that the drunk guys were actually colluding. They kept showing each other their cards. They kept saying stuff to me like lets both reraise each other and then we can split the pot.

I just tried to just ignore them. But in a classic junior high school moment the drunk guy kept whispering to me asking me what I had and the dealer freaking yells at me. So now I flip out. I've been playing with this dealer for a month. He knows my face. He knows I hardly ever say a word at the table. It's 6 in the morning, I'm the only other sober person here and he thinks I'm the problem?

It all turned into the WWF. The floor man yelling at the hooker. The hooker yelling at the drunk guy. The drunk guy still asking me what I have. And me yelling at the dealer. Best of all we're still in the middle of a hand.

When it all quieted down the game immediately fell apart which was a damn shame too.

I finally found some players that I'm better than.

Caesars Noon Tourney

77 players. I came in 6th. Overall it was a good performance.

We started with 4500 in chips. At the first break after two 40 minute levels I had close to 6000. Didn't do anything too fancy.

My table broke and I got moved to a new table full of really weak tight players. I was able to build my stack all the way up to around 12k without ever showing a hand.

This the key to tournament poker. Avoiding showdowns. Any time you show down cards, any two cards can win. But any time you can bet and win a pot before the river, there's no risk. No sucking out.

No hand is a big enough favorite. No hand is unbeatable.

The ultimate goal would be to win a poker tournament where the only hand shown down would be the final hand of the tournament.

Once I got up to 12k I started taking on the smaller stacks in position with any two cards. This is usually the point where I can really turn into a chip monster. I've learned how to snowball. However on this day I just couldn't win any of these races and as blinds got up to 600/1200 I actually dropped all the way back down to around 5k.

That's the bad news. The good news is that I actually have alot of fun when my stack gets smaller because my decisions are way easier. If I have a medium stack I have to tread more carefully. But with a small stack it's actually kind of freeing. All in or fold.

I got moved to a new table and bullied my way back up to 24k by the next break. By now we were down to two tables and only 9 players were getting paid. The way life works, I went card dead for the next 45 minutes. I folded. And folded. At least my neighbors noticed and I was able to steal a pot here and there. But I was basically running in place. Or bleeding away chips. I couldn't find anything to play a big pot with.

When we got down to 10 players I had 18k and picked up ace queen on the button. By far the best hand I had seen in a long time. Blinds were 1000/2000 with 200 ante.

Now alot of players do the stop and go here (bet like half their stack and push in the other half on the flop) but I had a funny feeling the big stack would call a smaller bet. And if I missed the flop I didn't want to have him lead out from the blind and take away my position. But mainly I thought he'd call anything less than an all in. So I pushed.

Just like I expected, the big stack took awhile to decide. I finally looked him in the eye and said "Whatever you do is fine with me." And it really was. I was sick and tired of being a small stack. I was sick of not seeing any playable hands. I knew the final table was about to happen. I wanted to go there with some chips. I told him "Call me and double me up or else let me go to dinner."

I think he may have thought I was trying to talk him into folding because he obliged and called me with king 3. How's that for having too many chips?

And boy was I grateful my hand held up.

Now I went to final table with some chips and was back in action. I was back to winning pots without ever showing cards. This is poker.

Every tournament has one key hand and mine came against a Vegas kind of guy, an older gentleman who's face I've seen around. Basically there are two types of people playing poker at noon on a Monday. People on vacation. And guys like him. If he's not playing poker you'd probably find him at the track. (For what it's worth, I don't think of myself as a guy like him. I like to think of myself as retired and poker is simply my hobby. All I need to complete my biography is grandchildren.)

So this guy has been playing too many hands all day. He raises alot preflop and then fires out on every flop. Then the turn. And if you haven't gotten the message, he's gonna bet the river.
I know his style. I can reraise him to take away hands. But most of all I'm waiting for a big hand to really hurt him with.

At the final table he raised a few hands in a row. He's correct in his strategy. The blinds are way too huge (now 2000/4000/400) for everyone. But all I need is an inkling of a hand and we're going all in. He pushed all in again when I had the button but nothing to call with. On the next hand he pushed all in under the gun when I looked down in small blind and saw ace king suited. Bingo.

We both had 35k in chips. The winner of this hand would now be the table chip leader and have the inside track to winning the tournament. The loser is out.

Since he had been raising so much I didn't think he had a pair here. I put him on something like ace jack. Or even something as weak as king queen that's gonna be trailing any ace. If he actually has a pair we're gonna race. But I really felt good about this call.

(One more "For what it's worth": there are other players that I'd actually fold ace king against preflop. But that's another story for another day).

So I call and he turns over ace queen offsuit.

Thank you very much.

I'm a 73 to 22% favorite to win the pot. (We tie around 5% of the time).

Flop is all rags.

Turn a rag.

With only the river to come I'm now a 93.18 to 6.82 % favorite.

And then 6.82 happened. The river was a queen.

Poof. I'm gone.

I know those beats happen all the time. I live them.

What I want to take away from today is:

-I showed improvement in reading my opponents cards. There were a couple of hands where I just knew exactly what the other players had. Like on one hand I was sure that the guy had a medium pocket pair like 10's and not a big ace. In another hand I knew my opponent hit middle pair. Three years ago I had no idea how to tell the difference. Now I can smell it.

-I'm winning more pots than before without showing down cards. I'm really starting to think this is the secret to poker.

-My hands were better thought out. I tried to think through my options of what to do before each card came out of the deck. Each bet, call, raise or fold I made had a larger purpose.

-I switched gears as much as possible. It's becoming alot of fun to play like a maniac. I was going deep into hands with cards as bad as 6,9 knowing full well that my opponents had no idea what I held.

-I had a good feel for when to be patient and fold hands as strong as king queen. And when necessary I fearlessly turned it up and pushed with less impressive cards like jack, 9 and 5, 7 suited.

It's been a real strange year so far.

I haven't made much money overall.

But I feel like I'm getting my Masters degree in poker.

And then hopefully I'm going to get paid and take everyone to Sizzler.

The Mathematics of Poker comes to life

I spent the past day reading "The Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman. A really fascinating book. I think of myself as a math guy but there was plenty of stuff I had to peruse a few times to grasp what the hell they were talking about. You know how you can tell I'm a math guy? The fact that I tried to use the word peruse in the last sentence.

Lets just say it's one of those books that definitely needs to be reread a few times.

I try to read most of the poker books that come out. At this point it's obviously not me learning how to play. My literary journey has more to do with wanting to keep up with what different players are thinking. By reading these various authors I can understand and identify the new moves that people are trying to copy. I think a pretty good example of this was in Dan Harrington's book where he explained the squeeze play. Ever since Harrington's book came out I've seen someone make that move every level in every tournament I play. Before his book? Maybe just once or twice a night by a savvy shark.

For those of you unfamiliar with the squeeze play, here's how it works. Someone opens the pot for a raise, and a second guy calls. You look down and then push with any two cards. As long as the first guy doesn't have aces he'll usually fold. And you figure the second guy will fold too since if he had anything worth calling your all in with, he would have raised in the first place.

As I mentioned in a previous entry, I've actually started to try to pick off this squeeze play in early or middle position by smooth calling a raise when I have a big pair and then hope it gets popped behind me. If you try this at home my warning to you is that if it doesn't get reraised behind you and a bunch of people get to see the flop you gotta be willing to throw your pair away if there's alot of action.

Back to The Mathematics of Poker. These guys take topics such as game theory and actually apply them to poker. For years I've read various math experts imply that game theory is valuable at the poker table but there hasn't been too much textwise to explain it.

The best thing this book does though is back up theories with solid mathematical evidence. For example there's a whole section devoted to exploiting your opponents by betting your draw hands. This isn't at all a brand new concept. But again the wonderful part is all of their math formulas proving why it's correct. The sample hand they use is a straight flush draw taking on pocket aces. Then they illustrate how straight flush draws benefit from getting all the money into the pot on the flop. And how this exact same hand is played incorrectly if the money goes in on the turn (when your odds aren't as good to hit your draw).

While reading this section today I was sort of laughing to myself how this specific hand didn't seem like it would really matter that often since most of the time I either have a flush draw (9 outs) or a straight draw (8 outs) but not usually the two together (15 outs). And so everything they're saying about how to bet with 15 outs doesn't necessarily apply to situations where I have only 8 or 9 outs.

So of course what happens tonight? I get myself into a raised pot preflop with 9, 10 of diamonds and the flop comes out 7,8 diamonds with an ace. I have a straight flush draw. Weird.

We all check to the preflop raiser and he bets out on the flop. The other guy calls. It's up to me.

I can take it easy and smooth call. But that's not correct.

I can also put in a medium raise. That feels good too. But that's not correct. All I'd be doing is creating a larger pot with worse odds for the river if I miss on the turn. And if I hit my flush or straight I might not be able to get them to put the rest of their money in later on in the hand.

Nope. I know exactly what to do. Mr. Chen and Mr. Ankenman having been proving it to me all day in their book.

I need to push.

I can win a decent size pot right now if everyone folds. That's fine. But I'm not even sure I want them to fold. If they have an ace in their hand I'm ready to gamble.

I get one caller.

I miss on the turn when a 10 comes.

The irony here is that this 10 gives me at least two more outs. How amusing would it be to beat aces with three 10's on the hand that I held a straight flush draw? (We haven't turned over our cards yet so perhaps a 9 giving me two pair wins me the hand as well).

And back to strategy, despite how pretty the board looks if I had just called on the flop I'd now be getting worse odds to call a big bet on the turn. Pushing on the flop takes away having to make a bad call on the turn. Ahhh. The good things in life.

The river unfortunately is a blank. All I end up with is my pair of tens. His ace is good.

The gross part is that he was playing ace rag. He called the 3rd guy's preflop raise of 7x the big blind with ace rag. I was happy at the time that he called the raise cause it gave me 2:1 odds to call as well. Sometimes it's better to not get what you want.

Meanwhile, come on universe! Reward me for playing like that on the flop. Reinforce it. Don't be taking away my buy in.

Can we blame my further bad luck this evening on tilt? I'm still not sure.

A hand or two later I hit two pair on the flop and ran into a set.

I also hit two pair in another hand with ace king and a guy rivered a straight.

I'm so curious if somehow I may have laid down either of these hands if I hadn't just lost a big pot.

And why is it that I think that if I somehow hit my outs on my straight flush hand, those other two hands don't go wrong on me? Why is that?

(For the full effect of my blog reread that last sentence to yourself doing your best Jerry Seinfeld impersonation).

I've read that one of the reasons people consider Phil Ivey to be such a great player is that he never goes on tilt. They say he keeps playing correctly regardless of what might have occurred on the hand before.

So here I was NOT folding my two pair in either hand because I thought that I'd only be folding them because I had just lost a big hand.

And I'm sitting there at the table thinking to myself that everyone else must think I'm on tilt. They don't believe I've hit my hands. So I thought there might be added value to my hands since someone might call me down with top pair. Or even ace high.

Here's the question I gotta answer. If someone called me up on the phone and said "Hey I got two pair for you on a rainbow flop. You just lost a big pot. You wanna come down and play them?"

I think the answer was "yes."

Who knew I shouldn't have picked up the phone?

10th out of 607

I played a 607 person tournament yesterday and finished in 10th place.

Not too much happened the first few levels.

Then with the blinds at 100/200, I had the good fortune to pick up pocket aces in early position after the guy under the gun limped in.

Back in the old days (which means like a week or month ago) I'd probably raise here. But I've noticed over and over and over again that when you have enough limpers someone usually raises. They'll do it with good cards. But they'll also do it with bad cards. Because they've read about it in a poker book.

And if no one raises and 5 or 6 of us end up seeing the flop, I'm now a good enough human being to muck my aces on the flop. That's right. I can fold aces.

Pocket aces come along so rarely that there becomes this insane urge to play for all your chips with them. But it's so rare that you get someone else to put their chips into the middle unless they have you beat.

But at least you get a good "bad beat" story right?

My plan works on this hand. Some guy in middle position pops it up to 600. Everyone folds back to the guy under the gun. He pushes all in for around 2500. Maybe he has aces too?

I push as well and so does the initial raiser to my left.

Under the gun shows pocket 6's. Guy to my left has pocket kings.

The aces hold up and I've been promoted to table chip leader with around 10k.

One big difference in my game these days versus lets say a year ago is that I'm getting a good feel for how to play with the larger stack. Back in the day I didn't want to do anything stupid so I'd just sort of hang out, wait for cards and eventually the remaining players would catch up in chips.

These days I'm playing alot of pots. I'm giving alot of action. I'm testing people with reraises. I'm putting them to decisions for all their chips. It's not blind aggression. I either have hit the board or at least have a draw. But I'm taking advantage of being able to survive their all in.

My stack grew and grew. I got it up to the 25k range and we were near the bubble when a new guy was brought to the table who had around 30. This slowed me down somewhat. We took turns battling the medium and small stacks. But I basically lost half my action.

It was somewhere around here that we got down to 63 players and all made the money.

With around 50 players left a monster stack (around 90k) came to the table. He sat down and started raising every single hand. It's fascinating to play with a guy like this. Like even when I'm in full bully mode I'm still folding half my hands. But not this guy. Every single hand was a raise. He was willing to double you up if you dared to play with him.

But even with this great opportunity it's still hard to pick a hand that you actually want to gamble your tournament life with. Like I'm probably ahead but do I really want flip a coin with him with my ace rag?

If I have ace 5 and he has a hand as bad as 2,7. he's still going to win the hand 35% of the time. So more than 1 out of 3 times I'm out of the tournament. If we bump him up to something like queen 6 he's winning 40% of the time. If our cards were faced up and I knew for certain he has these hands then I have to play with him. But there's also a chance he has something bad like ace 6 and I'm in huge trouble. And so without me being a desperate small stack it becomes tough to choose my spot to fight him with a medium stack.

I did play back at him a few times. One hand I reraised him with ace 9 from the button hoping he'd fold. Instead he called. At least this was better than him reraising me all in and putting me to that decision. We checked the flop. An ace came on the turn and he bet. I called. He checked the river. The pot was decent sized by now and I didn't want to get reraised if I bet.
I also figured he'd fold if I bet and he had nothing. So I checked too. He had 5 8 and I won the pot.

This maniac actually went out around 30th. Another big stack moved to our table. Maniac raised preflop. Other big stack called. Flop came king high. Maniac bets. Other big stack raises. Maniac goes all in with king 10. Other big stack calls with him with ace king and just like that. Poof. Maniac is gone.

When we were down to around 20 players I went card dead for awhile. As the blinds and antes start getting big there becomes this interesting acceptance over how often each player can raise and steal. It's almost like we're all in the jungle trying to eat. And most players will accept your eating once or even twice an orbit. But once you start taking more than that you're going to face resistance.

Since I wasn't getting cards I wasn't playing too many hands and the table would usually just fold whenever I put in a preflop raise. It's the reward I get for playing tight. For staying in line.

With the blinds at 1500/3000 and a 400 ante I came in from middle position with a raise to 11000. We were down to 14 players (two 7 handed tables) and I started the hand with around 55,000 in chips. I had ace jack. One of those hands I don't love playing. But it's also too strong to fold at this point. Since I've been selective I expect (hope) to get it folded around. I also don't mind calling a small stack going all in with it.

Unfortunately it's the big blind who moves all in. He has more chips than me so if I call I'd be playing for my tournament life. I think most players would insta-call here. But not me. He has shown strength. Pot odds aside, if he has a pocket pair I'm trailing. If he has ace king or ace queen I'm in even worse shape. And of course if he has a pocket pair jacks or larger it's real ugly.

He could be making a move with a hand like king queen. But to his credit, his table image is tight. He hasn't been reraising anyone. He's done nothing to make me think he isn't strong here. And it's also not like I was stealing from the button. I'm a tight player who raised from middle position so he knows I have something.

The irony here is that I have too many chips. If I had less it becomes an easy call. But I still have 44ish which puts me in the middle of the pack. I can still go around the table a couple of orbits. And I assume I can find a better spot to push in where I won't get called.

This is what I love so much about the endgame of tournament poker. You can raise and win the chips in the middle without ever having to showdown. You can only get knocked out if you showdown. So in this spot I chose to fold. So that I didn't have to showdown.

I've discussed this type of hand previously with many tournament players and it's interesting to hear both sides. So many players want to gamble. They need to be the big stack. They don't want to go to the final table with a small stack. I've had alot of success sticking around as one of the smaller stacks. The way I look at it, the chips are still going to be there. In this spot it comes down to the fact that I simply don't want to put my tournament life on the line with a hand like ace jack when my M is still over 5. But both strategies certainly have their merits.

We're not supposed to be results orientated but the other thing that cracks me up about this hand is that if we're on television and could see my our hole cards then I look like a freaking poker savant genius if he has ace queen.

And likewise I'm the weakest most pathetic player on the planet if I folded to ace 10.

Just wanted to mention that.

I survived a few more players and we eventually got down to 10. Two tables of 5. This is where the action gets real fierce. Once you get down to 9 players and form the final table things slow down again since you're getting a break and not paying the blinds 7 out of every 9 hands. But at these 5 handed tables you're in blinds 40% of the time. You have to play fast.

I was 9th in chips with 10 players left. I could have waited to see what happened to the 10th place guy but by this point my stack was in a serious danger zone. Actually this was true for most of us. The blinds had already passed the 2000/4000/500 structure and we were now on 2500/5000 with a 600 ante. That's 10,500 every 5 hands. At this point even the big stacks weren't that healthy in comparison to the blinds.

As for the end:

I got lucky to find a hand as strong as king 10 to push with on the button.

I got unlucky to run into an ace queen in the small blind.

I got lucky to hit a king on the flop.

I got unlucky to see 3 diamonds on the board with him holding the ace of diamonds.

I got lucky to see that my 10 of diamonds took away one of his outs and that I was still a 56% favorite.

I got unlucky when 44% happened and a diamond came on the turn.

I got lucky to have most of my hands hold up and go so far in this tournament.

I got unlucky not to be able to finish it.

Apparently it was real late in Texas

Some nights it's just not your night. For me that was tonight. I just couldn't win.

I guess the good news is most of the time I got in there with the best of it. But overall it never worked out for me.

I played with some really bad players and I noticed a strange trend.

Any time I overbet my hand I got called. It made no sense. So I started experimenting.

Anytime I'd hit the flop or have a draw I'd bet most of my chips. This happened 3 times in the last hour I was playing. And all 3 times I actually got called.

Here were the hands.

My favorite was a flop that had an ace with two hearts. I moved all in. I don't necessarily recommend this move but I just wanted see what would happen. I was giving a flush draw the worst possible odds. And even an ace has to think I have a set or two pair right?

No he doesn't.

A dude actually called me with ace 7, no hearts. Lets just say I won this hand.

On the internet I might have wondered if I was playing against a bot with a bug. Someone please tell the programmer that his bot is calling all ins with top pair and a 7 kicker. But this was a real human being. I guess my overbet must have screamed bluff to him? Strange call.

The second opportunity to overbet was me repopping the pot for half my stack with ace queen.

Damn it's fun to gamble.

Or at least is was until a guy came over the top of me from the button. Now at this point I figure I'm beat but I have to call. I'm getting 3 to 1 on my money.

And like I said I bet half my stack. The other half was going in the flop no matter what came out of the deck.

In this spot I'm what's know in the poker business as "pot committed."

Meanwhile I have to be behind here. He either has a pair and we're racing.

Or worse for me he's gonna show me ace king.

Nope.

This real live human being turns over ace 8 suited.

Yes. He reraised me all in with ace 8 suited.

Huh? Why? How? What's going on at poker tables in Las Vegas?

More importantly, if this guy is reraising me all in with ace 8 in a hand where I've gotta call, then American public schools are failing. This "man child" has been left behind. Someone get the President on the phone.

Incredibly the universe didn't let him suck out on me.

I'm still in shock. Both by his reraise. And the fact that my hand held up.

Now as you might remember at the start if this blog entry I said it wasn't my night. Here's why. Those are the only two hands I can remember winning.

No need to bore you with my pain. Lets cut to the end.

On the final hand of my night there were a couple of limpers and I decided to push all in with ace king preflop. If someone has a pair lets gamble. If they don't then good for me.

Everyone folded except for this one gentleman from Texas who literally looked at his watch and said "It's getting late. I call."

Then he turned over jack 8 offsuit.

Now I know that ace king loses to jack 8 all the time. I'm not going to discuss the math.

But a preflop ace king all in shouldn't get called by jack 8 because "it's getting late."

At least tell me something like "I'll give you action."

Or "I want to gamble."

Or "Jack 8 is my favorite hand. I have to play it."

But please don't tell me that you're gonna call me because "it's getting late."

I've read alot of poker books but I can't remember any of them ever recommending a call based on what time it is.

Shame on me

Just got home from another cash session. I had alot of swings and when all was said and done I was up an insignificant 60 bucks.

I'm glad I didn't do something really stupid since my cards went dead for a couple of hours and in the past when that's occurred I've managed to talk myself into playing some crap hands trying to get lucky. If anything the opposite occurred where I folded hands I should fold to raises but then watched in horror as my mucked hands flopped quads. This happened twice. Yep it was that kind of night.

So like I said I'm just happy I didn't do anything out of frustration to cost myself my entire stack. But there's one hand I gotta talk about before I go to sleep. One hand where I just wasn't thinking.

I'm in the big blind with 8,10 offsuit and get to see the flop in an unraised pot.

Flop is queen, 8, 2. Rainbow.

Small blind (a loose player) leads out for 12 bucks. I call him with my middle pair. I've seen him makes alot of moves with nothing and I don't mind calling him in this spot. Everyone else folds.

Turn is the 8 of diamonds.

This time he bets out 25. Now if I thought he was on a draw I'd reraise here. But since he also bet the flop I put him on a queen. Like I said he's loose so he could also still just be trying to steal the pot. I have position on him and I want him to bet out again on the river. So I don't reraise. I just smooth call the $25.

The river comes and it's a rag diamond. He checks to me.

There are no straight possibilities. But the rag diamond does put a flush possibility out there.

Here's where I got stupid. I bet $25.

Looking back on this now it's a complete asinine bet on my part. I should have just checked it down. This is one of those cases where I'm probably only getting called if I'm beat. But worse than getting called, he reraises me $75 more to make it $100 total.

So now I either have to lay down my trips (which staring at the board could easily be beat) or else I'm paying him off an extra $75 to see his cards.

Gross. And it's not even about the money. $100 makes no difference in the long term. It's about playing a hand so poorly on the river. Before I bet the river the best case scenario for me to get paid off was that he has a queen and calls me and so I make $25 more. That's really not so great of a best case scenario. The other possibility is that he's on a draw in which case he's just gonna fold so I'm not even gonna make any more money from him. However the worse case scenarios are plenty. He could have a flush. He could have an 8 with a better kicker. He could even have hit a full house.

All that my betting $25 did was open the door for me getting reraised. Sure his reraise could be him making a move. But I don't want to be a position where I have to call a big bet on the river with this hand. And that's exactly what I did to myself.

Now of course I could still fold at this point. But I accepted the additional $75 loss as tuition. Lets learn from this hand. So I call and he turns over 3,5 of diamonds for the flush.

Looking back on how he played the hand...he bet 12 on the flop with nothing. 5 high. And then $25 more on the turn when his flush became a long shot 1 in 6 possibility. Basically he was donating to me. He's exactly the kind of bad player I want to be playing with. My mistake though was giving him the chance to make any additional money when he actually hit his card on the river. Because if the flush misses on the river he's not putting any more money into the pot anyway. He's checking and then folding

I wasn't pissed about the "bad beat" of a runner runner flush coming out of the deck to beat me. That I can't control. But it was just plain silly for me to reopen the betting for such a small value bet on the river. Even if I couldn't put him on a flush draw. And of course if I really wanted to put more money into the pot I should have reraised him on the turn.

Shame on me.

You have to be willing to lose your money.

I'm becoming more comfortable with the gambling side of cash game poker.

You put your money into the middle when good situations come up and hope for the best.

You bet to protect your hand even when it might not be the best hand.

You don't try to imagine all the worst case scenarios and try to cut your losses. You leave that to the other players.

If you lose, you lose.

But you gotta gamble if you wanna win big.

I went to Caesars last night to play in their 7pm tournament but it had less spots than usual due to taping the NBC Headsup tournament thing there.

Here's Shana Hiatt walking by my table on the way out. Check out how smooth I'm getting shooting over my shoulder in my blue jacket with my phone camera.




So with no tournament for me to play I went and sat at the first available cash table. This turned out to be a 1/3 no limit table. I bought in for $300.

From the second I sat down I was completely open to the idea of losing my $300. No one else at my table played loose and I took advantage by giving them alot of action. If someone had more than $100 dollars in chips I'd basically call any preflop raise in position. I was there to gamble.

A perfect example came in my first orbit at the table. I'm holding pocket jacks on a 9,10, queen flop. Preflop raiser bets out. In the old days I could fold to "save money" (not thinking that I'm actually losing out on winning a big pot) or call and hope to get lucky on the turn. But I'm there to gamble. Even if he has a top pair hand like Ace queen it's a real dangerous board for him. I ask him how much he has to see how much my reraise will hurt him. We basically have the same chips. I push all in. And the fact that he doesn't immediately call me makes me feel great. I'm more than happy to take down the pot right now. If he calls and I'm ahead that's great too. Even if he has a hand like pocket aces I'm still gonna win this pot 40% of the time when an 8, king, jack or runner runner flush comes.

I'm there to gamble.

Another hand I call a preflop raise to 15 with 6,8 clubs. Three of us see the flop: An ace with two clubs. He bets 10 dollars into a 45 dollar pot. Uh okay, I call.

Turn misses me but he checks!

River brings a club. I bet 50. Poor kid calls and as I'm pulling the pot in with my flush he shows me ace 10. So basically he checked on the turn when he had the best hand and called on the river when he had the worst hand. It's fear poker.

He tells me after the hand that he thought his 10 might be outkicked. The problem with this school of thought is that if you're gonna play ace 10, you gotta bet it when your ace comes. Or to put it another way, it's reasonable for him to think he might be outkicked but if he doesn't feel comfortable betting it when he hits then he shouldn't be playing it.

I had another hand with another guy and same thing happens. He minibets flop when I have small suited connector flush draw. This time I get creative and reraise him. He calls. I miss on turn and amazingly he leads out with another minibet! It was so absurd that for a moment I wondered if he was trapping me with a bigger flush draw. Still I call.

I miss on the river and should be done with the hand unless I want to bluff. He leads out with another minibet. He he. I can only win if I bluff and make him fold but I just can't resist seeing his cards. And besides it's just 20 dollars. A week and a half ago I made fun of guy at 2/5 for calling my $200 river bet because $200 meant nothing to him. And now I've become that guy.

I call and yep he shows top pair. Interestingly enough this same guy freaked out later on in the evening when his pocket aces got cracked by a flush draw. Someone needs to tell him to bet more to protect his hands.

Playing against players like this makes poker easy. This must be what it feels like for people like Phil Ivey when they play against the rest of the world. For me it only occurs right now at 1/3. Although that might be too harsh on myself. I've played at higher limits but I think the key is feeling comfortable losing your money on the table. So it's not that I can't play with the rich guys at 25/50 no limit. It's that I don't have the bankroll and thus the stomach yet to play correctly. At this level I'd be sitting back waiting to trap them. Rather than be willing to play correctly. And by correctly I mean willing to lose my money.

Winning versus Surviving

In tournaments there are two schools of thought. Some players are trying to survive. They watch other players get eliminated and feel good as they get closer and closer to the money. Other players are there to accumulate chips. They have no interest going to the final table with a small chip stack. They don't even really seem to care about barely finishing in the money. They are there to win it. And top heavy payout structures reward this philosophy.

I made a World Series of Poker final table playing survival mode. I waited patiently for good hands. I didn't always take advantage of position. I played very few hands. I usually got in there with the best hand and luckily for me it usually held up. I did so because I felt outmatched by alot of the players at my table. For example I had Men the Master next to me for most of day 1 and so I didn't bother trying to outplay him.

Now that I have more experience my game has opened up. I try alot more moves. I like to mix up my play. As I've mentioned in previous posts, I like to purposely misplay hands. It's the only way to play with better players. Sometimes I'm tight surviving guy. Other times I'm crazy loose guy. Now, if they're bothering to pay attention, they have to figure out who I am on each hand.

I'm mentioning all this because I played in a small tournament last night and my two worlds collided. 23 players entered. We're down to 14. 3 get paid. I'm 2nd in chips. The chip leader is one seat to my right.

Blinds are 75/150. I have around 5000. He has 7000. Next largest stack maybe has around 3000. But there are plenty of small ones to pick on. We don't have to get involved with each other. Other than the fact that we're sitting near each other.

On my big blind I pick up 3 4 suited. It gets folded around to chip leader who mini raises to 300 from the button. I was about to throw it away but I love this hand and I don't really mind donating an extra 150 chips to him. I tell myself that the good thing is that I can easily throw it away if I miss on the flop. But if I can hit a straight or flush I can win a big pot from him.

Of course I flop a flush. I check. He makes a small bet of only 150. At this point I put him on a hand like ace of hearts . I think he's trying to buy a turn card hoping to hit a 4 card flush. Sure I can reraise him here to protect my small flush but I also don't want to go broke on this hand.

I call and tell myself that if another heart comes on the turn I can easily still get away from this hand.

Turn is a rag. He bets again. This time 300. I raise to 1200. He reraises to 3000.

It's the moment of truth.

He can still have a hand with the ace of hearts like I originally thought and maybe his reraise is putting me to the test. His reraise here either lets him take down the pot now and if I call he still has outs on the river.

Of course he could also have a flush bigger than mine. But to his credit he's been playing alot of hands loosely so it's not like he only puts his money in with the nuts.

This is that Winning versus Surviving moment really put to the test. I can fold and still have plenty (over 3000) of chips.

Four things make me call.

-If I'm gonna play a hand like 3,4 suited I can't then fold it when I actually hit my flush. If I'm scared of losing to a higher flush then I shouldn't be playing it in the first place.

-If I double up here and win this pot I'm a complete monster.

-If he had a higher flush than me he might have just called my turn reraise and then sat back and let me bet out on the river again.

-My original read was that he was on a draw. I've heard many pros say that once you put someone on a hand you must stick to it and that you get yourself in more trouble changing your mind.

It's also fair to note that this hand occurred on the internet so there were no physical tells to observe that may have swayed me one way or the other.

So I reraise all in. He waits perhaps 10 seconds and then calls.

He shows a king high flush.

So of course afterwards as I'm logging off, my survival conscience called me up to ask me what the hell I was doing giving away all my chips like that with plenty of opportunity left. My winning conscience however was unavailable and not taking phone calls.

Another day at the office

The Venetian is running something called the "Deep Stack Extravaganza" over the next two weeks. Their $340 buy-in gets you 6000 chips and the $550 tourneys start out with 10,000 chips. Hence the "Deep Stack" title. I have to commend them on the concept and structure. Alot of tournaments in this town turn into pushfests by the second hour. Here you get at least a few hours of play before things turn ugly.

I went down yesterday to play in the $340 event and for the first time since I've been here went on a card rush. Within my first two orbits at the table I had pocket queens twice, ace king and even hit a gut shot straight on a hand when I was semi bluffing. My 6000 chips magically turned into 14,000. In theory I could have gone to lunch and come back in an hour.

It was interesting to be a big stack so early. I love pushing around the table and am getting much better at picking my spots. However it's hard to do too much damage when the blinds are still only 25/50, 50/100. So I was sort of waiting for things to get bigger before going into bully mode. No need to double someone up.

There was one hand that I may have played too weakly. Then again it may have been a good laydown. With blinds at 50/100 I got ace king in early position and limped in. I'm getting more and more into purposely misplaying my hands preflop. I love the idea of mixing up styles to keep players confused. It gets folded around to the button who bumps it up 400. I start to salivate. I'm more than excited to call this raise out of position.

Here's where it gets interesting: big blind reraises to 1200.

I think about my options and decide my best move is to fold. I only had $100 invested in the pot. I want to protect my stack until blinds get bigger. His reraise could easily be kings or aces so I might be drawing slim. In a best case scenario for me he has something like jacks or queens and I'm flipping a coin. I suppose if I reraise all in here it looks like I limped with aces. But I certainly think he has a real hand. He didn't just reraise with nothing.

I mention this hand because it's fascinating in poker how your stack determines everything. Like if I'm low on chips I'm gonna beat him into the pot with my ace king. Alot of players would probably beat him into the pot in my spot as the big stack as well. He had around 6000 chips so the worse case scenario is I'm back down to 8000 and still up 2000 on the day. And of course if I win the pot and take his chips I'm up to 20k. So there is certainly merit to that argument. But with blinds so small I figure it's better to look for better situations than calling a reraise with ace king after someone just showed strength. At least for me it is.

The other interesting thing about the hand was that the guy who bumped it up to 400 folded as well. So I was correct to drool over his initial raise.

A little while later the seat to my left opens up and in comes Shawn Rice who I played against last September at the Ultimate Bet Classic in Aruba. Shawn likes to raise alot of hands. He plays that Hellmuth style where he keeps trying to win alot of small pots with alot of small raises. Meanwhile I had Susie Isaacs to my right the whole day. She plays a much tighter game. In a perfect world I would flip them and have her to my left and Shawn to my right but the world sure ain't perfect. The other problem was Shawn had me out chipped and so his presence (getting to act after me on each hand) slowed me down once the antes kicked in.

The key hand of the day occurred with blinds are 200/400 with 25 ante. Susie raised to 1200 in early position and I looked down to see two red kings. I can't slowplay here. But I also don't mind if she calls. I just don't want a group of us seeing a flop. I bump it up to 3000 total. I'm giving her good odds to call. 1800 more to go after a 5000 pot. Plus the way she plays she's gonna fold unless she's really strong.

But a funny thing happens on the way back to Susie. Some dude in middle position goes all in for a little more than 6000. Susie folds. It's another 3000ish to me which means that even if he flashes me pocket aces I'm getting the right price to call.

The total pot has over 14,000 in it and I still have around 6000 still behind the line. Winning this pot will put me up over 20k. This spot is sort of similar to earlier in the day when I laid down the ace king. Except this time I have the goods. I have pocket kings.

Only problem is other guy turns over the pocket aces. I get no help and with blinds going up to 300/600/50 (1400 a round) I'm suddenly down to that 6000 I mentioned I had behind the line.

I really had no reaction to losing this hand. It's strange how numb I've become at the poker table. It makes no difference whether I'm doubling up on the first orbit or giving away half my stack with pocket kings. I maintain the same bored look. I guess that's a good thing.

So many players give away the rest of their chips after they lose a big hand. But I like to stick around and find something fun to showdown.

I hung around in the 5000 range for an orbit or two. Then I doubled up to 10k when my king queen suited found a way to get past ace jack.

By now there were 80 something players remaining from the 239 that started the day. The average chip stack was over 16k so I needed to find a spot to double up again. I was in the cutoff seat when I looked down and saw ace jack. Everyone had folded to me so I just needed to get past 3 random hands. I decided to push all in figuring that if I raise to something like 4000 and I get reraised I can't afford to fold.

Small blind calls and turns over pocket queens. Not so good for me. I'm around 30% to win the hand. The crazy part here is that if I do manage to win this pot I'm up to a healthy 20k and back to playing poker.

Driving home I was a little down on myself for going out with ace jack. But it wasn't in early position. It was first into the pot from the cutoff seat. Then I criticized myself for pushing all in instead of raising to 3 or 4 thousand but like I said above I don't think I can fold there if I get reraised. I think I just got unlucky to run into pocket queens.

Just like I got unlucky to run into pockets aces.

That be poker.

Wynn Classic

I played the $540 opening event of the Wynn Classic.

668 players. I finished 30th. I had a good tourney but it always stings to get knocked out.

Especially when first place is $110k.

I got off too a slow start on Day 1. After 3 levels my starting chip stack (4000) was down to 2850. They added the ante in the 4th level and my game finally took off. I've noticed lately that tournaments don't really seem to begin for me until the antes kick in. I think this is part of why I'm not more successful yet at cash games. I need more money in the pot to have something worth fighting over. It's almost like whatever strategic advantage I've developed doesn't exist without a nice chunk of change in the middle. I basically have no idea how hard to play a hand like pocket queens when the blinds are 25/50. And I only seem to get myself into trouble. Maybe that's why some players show up late to these bigger stack tournaments.

So back to level 4, I bump my stack all the way up to 10,000 without ever having to show down cards. I find a couple of great spots to steal pots with reraises. Amazingly everyone is playing really passively. In this day and age the problem is usually the opposite. But not in this tournament. Once I got chips I started to run over the table. No one wanted to get involved with me. I ran my stack up to 17,000 when the following hand came up. I'm sitting on the button with ace queen. Guy to my right was down to around 5000 and the blinds were 300/600 with 50 ante at this point. He pushes all in. I call him and he turns over ace 10.

Flop and turn miss us both and it looks like I'm gonna have close to 30k in chips which would turn me into a monster. As it was I was already table chip leader with 17k. But of course a 10 hits on the river and knocks me back down to 12k. I took the beat well and obviously felt fine about the play. But I mention this hand because looking back on the tournament who knows what I could have down with 30k at that point. Or to look at it another way, when the day ended a few hours later with the blinds at 1000/2000 and 200 ante, my total chip count was only 26,500. With everyone playing passively I think I could have built it up to 60ish instead of having to play more carefully and grind it up to the 26,500.

When I returned on day 2 there were 72 players remaining and I was in 49th place overall. The Wynn was only paying 63 spots so I was excited to see how the whole payout bubble went down. Players are so desperate to finish in the money that I can often build up my stack at this point. A few guys started asking if the Wynn would agree to pay out 72 spots. A couple of the big stacks objected but then the Wynn used their "Management reserves the right to change tournaments" rule and decided to pay out 72 spots. Even though I wasn't a big stack (I think average chip count was 37k) I still wanted to see only 63 get paid so that players would play tighter. With everyone suddenly in the money players were looser.

I picked up pocket kings in the first orbit and doubled up to over 50k which allowed me to play poker again instead of just having one move (push all in) preflop. Then the following hand came up with blinds still at 1000/2000/200.

A gentleman under the gun raises to 7000. A very tight player from Texas calls. I'm sitting on the button and look down to see pocket 9's. It was very tempting to reraise all in here but I also have two big stacks sitting to my left in the blinds. I'm happy to have just doubled up. I also feel like I can out play most of the players at this table. So I don't necessarily want to take a coinflip here. In a WSOP tournament if I was sitting with great players I might like the chance to steal the pot or else double up to 100,000 chips in this spot. But for once I really did think I could build up my stack through smaller pots. I liked having position from the button. And I wanted to see a flop. So I called the 7000.

Small blinds folds. But then the big blind puts his card protector over his cards and starts thinking. This went on for a few minutes. I could tell he was eyeing the original raisers stack. He needed to know how much he would lose if he went all in and original raiser has aces. The original raiser had around 30k. A player not in the hand eventually called the clock on the big blind who then immediately declared himself all in.

Much to my dismay the original raiser folded. So did the the tight Texan to my right. It came back to me on the button. This was a tough one for me. I was familiar with the big blind player. He's a tournament guy who knows that he can steal pots from the big blind with a reraise. So it's very possible he's making this move with a hand worse than mine. He also knows that if the Texan guy or me had a hand like aces, we would have already reraised. He just needed to make it through the original raiser.

I so much wanted to call him here. If I knew for certain that he had a hand like ace king I would make the call. These are the kinds of races you need to win to win these tournaments. But there was also a decent shot that he has a hand like pocket jacks or pocket queens. A hand that doesn't want to see a flop against 3 other players since he's probably losing if an ace or king flops.

I also decided that I'm too good a player to go out with pocket 9's. If he turns over jacks I'd be muttering to myself that I know better than this all the way home. If I fold I still have 43k in chips, plenty for this blind level. And so I folded.

This is one of those hands that I wish was televised so I could see his cards. After the hand was over the original raiser said he folded ace king. (Hard to believe). And big blind said he had big pair. (I'd like to believe). But either way it was a good play by him. In theory it was the same play I was gonna make if I raised from the button after the Texan called. But part of the reason I didn't raise from the button was I didn't want either blind to wake up with a hand and knock me out. So if he indeed had a hand, then my 7000 call got me the exact information I wanted.

As I hoped, I was able to cruise along and build my stack back up to over 60k without ever really getting any cards. We were playing 40 minute levels and the blinds soon went up to 1500/3000 with 300 ante and then 2000/4000 with 400 ante. At a nine handed table each orbit gets pretty expensive. With the 2000/4000 blinds with 400 ante it was costing 9600 chips every 9 hands. I stayed in that 50 to 60 range by basically stealing one pot per round. There was no one at my table with more than 100k so everyone was pretty short stacked. At this point there's much less poker being played and much more pushing all in preflop. Hands that I love like suited connectors go way down in value.

We went on break after level 12 and when we returned to the table the blinds were now 3000/6000 with a 500 ante. 13,500 an orbit. Absurd. I was down to 50k in chips which meant I had to find a hand to push with. It was tough to find a spot. Especially when you're not the first one into the pot. Like if someone bets 25k from early position there's not too much you can do with your two rags.

I eventually got my money in and was grateful to simply have two live cards against my opponent. But nothing hit and I went out 30th. I sort of feel like this tournament just ran out on me. Like I don't even have a bad beat story to tell. The blinds just got too big and my cards just went too cold. I gave myself plenty of time and alot of chances to get lucky. But it just didn't come together. That's sort of the funny part. Like for that whole final level I never saw a pocket pair, suited connectors, two face cards, any ace, or anything that I'd be remotely interested in showing down. I also couldn't find a spot where no one entered the pot before me.

Until the last hand.

Overall this was a good experience. I'm getting much better at reading players live. Picking up on tells. Guessing their cards. Keeping track of chip stacks. Knowing how much is in the pot.

The players keep seeming worse and worse to me. But maybe I'm getting better too.

Vegas Fact #3

Vegas Fact #3
You know how in casinos they give you those comp cards for when you gamble so that they can reward you with some sort of "comps" based on the time you spend playing? Well I found out today that my past 6 weeks of playing DIDN'T COUNT because I've never "checked out" each time I've left the poker room.

That's right. I have to check out for my time to count. I'm not really whining about the fact that they make you check out. But I am whining because no one ever told me to before today. You'd figure this is something that they might want to mention when you get the card.

I play up or down to the level of the competition.

I start out the night at Caesars. There's a long wait to get onto a 2/5 table so I sit down at 1/2 and seem to forget how to play. No one at the table notices my poor play because it's the norm.

Bad play seems to inspire bad play.

And of course whenever I have a decent hand I play it too weakly and someone hits two pair or something weird to take it down.

Somehow when the stakes are bigger my concentration and attention to detail and correct aggressive play is much better.

Eventually a seat opens at 2/5 and I move up to their big section. Seated to my left is some pro who I cannot name. I never asked him his name but I've seen his face and when it pops up I guess I can come back here and edit this to add the info.

All you really need to know is that he acts like a pro. What does this mean? It means he has over Five thousand dollars in front of him at a table where most everyone else buys in for less than a grand. To give you some perspective, I've bought in for $500. So I'm not exactly gonna force him out preflop even if I raise 10x the blinds to 50. If anything he loves this situation. Because he can read my body language on the flop and maybe decide that I'm weak and shove a couple of hundred out to the middle and see if I fold. This forces me to get real creative when we're in hands together. But despite the fact that I'm intimidated on some level, on another level I freaking love the competition and challenge.

This guy is making moves like raising 100 on the river with nothing and then telling anyone who will listen how great he is. To his credit, he's often correct in his reads. He's calling out people's hands. So to counter I'm purposely misplaying my heads. I raise with 8 10 suited. I smooth call with ace king. Anything to make him misinterpret where he's at in the hand.

The key hand tonight went down as follows:

Someone in early position raises it up to 20. Two people call. I look down and see 8 9 of clubs. A dream hand in this situation. I don't feel comfortable playing hands like ace jack at this table since I have no clue where I'm at when the big stacks call.

But with a hand like 8 9 of clubs, I can make a straight or flush and feel good about getting my chips in there. Or else I can let it go. But at least I know where I'm at. I'm not gonna have to worry if my kicker is good.

Someone behind me raises the preflop bet from 20 to 40. Even better. 6 players including myself see the flop. There's 240 dollars in the middle.

Flop comes 2,3,4 with two clubs. Great news.

It gets checked to me and I decide to take my stand. I bet 120 dollars. I figure this bet somewhat hides my hand. I could have something like pocket 8's and be trying to take the pot down now. And the truth is that I'm more than happy to win the pot now. But I also want to commit myself to putting the rest of my chips in. I want to play a big pot with this hand in this spot. And if I can't take it down now, the next best thing is to get as many callers as possible to come along for the ride.

But something funny happens on the way to my betting 120. I count out 4 five dollar chips and slide it across the betting line in front of my 20 five dollar chip stack. Now I'm not exactly sure what I did but I managed to push the $20 across while sort of fumbling the larger amount. And the freaking guy to my left calls it a string bet.

This was really classless. It wasn't like I put in money and then went back for more. I clearly counted the whole thing out and obviously intended to put the whole thing out in one motion. It wasn't like I was looking for reactions and any of the other BS associated with string bets.

But the guy to my left calls it on me and the pro chimes in that he agrees with him and the dealer rules that my bet was 20. Only 20. Now everyone has no reason to fold. They can all call and get a cheap $20 look at what will now be a 360 dollar pot.

If I had a hand like an overpair I'd have gone berserk. I'd be giving everyone a cheap chance to suck out on me with a straight or flush or overcard. So I decide to play it that way. I start to mildly complain while sitting there shaking my head in disbelief that they're calling string bet on me.

It gets better. My flush comes on 4th street. So everyone checks to me, the preflop bettor, and I respond by checking in disgust. Fuck you everyone. You just ruined my pocket pair and let someone hit a flush.

The danger of making this play is that I let someone with the ace of clubs have a shot at winning the pot if another club comes off on the river. But I took that chance since I assumed I could get paid off if one didn't come. On the other hand if I bet the turn I figure it's obvious that I semi bluffed my flush draw and everyone will fold.

The river misses and my flush is still good.

Everyone checks to me again and this time I angrily announce "two hundred" while shoving just 20 dollars over the line to sort of passive aggressively repeat and relive the chaos of my flop bet. Although this time the bet is indeed two hundred since spoken words are binding at the table.

The pro doesn't know what to do. He announces that I have him beat. First he says I have a straight. Then he says I have a flush. I say to him "What my set isn't good?" He goes on and on about how easy I am to read but the thing is he won't throw his hand away. I love this.

He goes on and on about what I could have. I know he doesn't want to let me steal this pot from him if I'm bluffing. He finally concludes that two hundred dollars means nothing to him and shoves it in the middle. I thank him and pull in the pot.

A few hands later we're in a hand again together. He bets 25 on the flop and I call. He bets 50 on the turn. I announce raise. And shove in 250. Again he says he knows what I have and folds.
(Gee I thought you were folding because you thought you were ahead)

The next orbit I pick up ace jack in the cut off seat. This is the kind of hand I hate playing because I can flop an ace and still not know where I'm at. I'm not gonna play a big pot with it against players who are better than me.

Of course the ace flops. Pro checks. I check behind him. Button bets out. Me and the pro both call. Turn makes a flush. We all check. River blanks. Pro checks. I check. Button checks.

Button turns over ace 8. I show ace jack. Pro slow rolls his flush. And then complains that neither of us bet on the turn or river. He announces that "no one is playing poker here. They only bet they have the nuts."

As if I should get defensive about his criticism.

If he wants to see me put money in when I'm behind he should come play 1/2 with me sometime.

Some words from Doyle

I used to talk about a related subject with a very big and successful gambler I've known for many years. He said, "If a man came in and offered to lay me 10 to 1 on the flip of a coin for all the money I had in the world, I wouldn't take it." He said he just couldn't liquidate everything he's got, all of his property and cash. He wouldn't risk losing it all, which would be worth several million dollars. He wouldn't do it even if he thought he could get hold of a few more million.
But I'd do it. I surely would. I'd just have to. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to take 10 to 1 on an even money shot. I'd do it because I have enough confidence in myself that I'd be able to come up with more millions if I lost.
-Doyle Brunson

Back to Back

I played tournaments the past two days at Caesars and my sanity improved tremendously by two back to back final table performances.

Thursday I was in a groove. This feels silly to write but my strategy in many spots was to think "what would a great player do here?" and then follow that advice.

We got down to 10 players but only 9 got paid. As usual everyone wanted to finish in the money. I was so proud of how I bullied the table at this point. Reraising the preflop raisers, stealing the blinds, and making the occasional good laydown.

It does wonders for the soul to lay down ace jack and have your opponent show you ace queen.

I also laid down pocket 3's in a blind on blind situation when the other guy had pocket 9's. I dare to say that something told me to do that. Not sure if it was sensing strength from my opponent or foreshadowing bad omens from the universe but whatever it was I'm glad to have followed it.

Friday night I went back to Caesars fully expecting to bust out early and play cash games. The luck involved in going far in these tournaments is extraordinary. Like even if you're always a 70% favorite to win the hand, the odds of winning two hands in a row is only 49%.

Think about that. You win back to back hands LESS THAN 50% OF THE TIME even when you are as strong as a 70% favorite!

That's insane.

But it all worked out again. When I was ahead in hands my cards held up. And when I was drawing I seemed to hit when I needed to. I'm learning to play the big stack much better and taking on alot of opponents when I have the chips. However unlike the night before this time the smaller stacks wouldn't let me run over them. I was rereaised all in alot by small stacks and faced alot of tough close decisions. This caused alot of variance in my chip stack. However when all was said and done I still managed to go to the final table as the tourney chip leader. The only problem for me was that the guy in 2nd place was seated to my left. And he was drunk and aggressive and reraising me alot. This forced me to make some laydowns with decent but not great cards because I didn't want to flip a coin with him with 8 players left.

We eventually got down to 3 players. Drunk guy, me and a woman who was a good player but having the card run of her life. It was one of those typical tournament situations where she was small stacked but just kept doubling up. She also kept flashing me her cards when she'd fold and in no particular order I saw queens, kings, ace king, ace jack suited, etc.

Meanwhile I seeing stuff like 3,8 off. 4,9, etc. I think my best hand three handed was ace 10. It was a tough spot for me. I was itching to play aggressively and take over the table but never got the cards to do much. And since she was showing me her big hands it wasn't like I felt I was being bullied.

An hour later I'm down from over 100K to just around 60. Other guy also has around 60. But now she has 137K. It was 5am and they both wanted to cut a deal. However for the 2nd night in a row I refused to do a deal unless it benefited me. I felt like I was the best player at this table and despite my bad run of cards I could still easily win this. It could all flip on one hand.

I turned down her offer but then made a counter offer and she accepted. I had mixed feelings driving home. Part of me was proud of cutting two favorable deals the past two nights. But part of me is so competitive and simply loves to play that in a sense I feel like I cheated myself of the experience.

Of course if I had lost a coinflip and gone out with 3rd place money I'd be whining here instead about how I should have been math smart and taken the deal.

I still think cash games are what will eventually make or break the Vegas year. It's the way poker players make a living. There's so much luck involved in winning tournaments. Still, after the past two nights and last summer at the WSOP it probably couldn't be any clearer that my strength right now is tournament poker.

I ain't going anywhere.....yet.

The bad streak continues.

Today it was queens losing to 6,8 when an actual human being called my pot sized flop bet with bottom pair and then hit another pair on the turn. Very strange play. If he's not going to fold on the flop he should at least reraise me to try to get me to fold. There's no long term value in calling there. Very strange play indeed.

Unless maybe he sees the future. In which case it was a great though obvious play.

Then my night ended with good old pocket kings. I raised preflop and did everything I could to act like I was stealing. It worked because a gentleman reraised me with his pocket 10's. It was one of those mini reraises that people do with pocket aces. And if he had aces then good for him cause he's about to get paid off post flop. I smooth called him and then sat back and waited for him to bet again on the flop. If I reraise him preflop he might fold and I don't want to lose my fish.

The flop comes all connected.

He bets like he supposed to. I reraise all in. He calls.

His 10 comes on the river. He he.

It doesn't hurt like yesterday.

I got all my money in twice with the best hand. That's all I can do. And today I understand that.

If keep doing that over and over I should be able to make a living doing this.

And if I don't that's fine too.

Somehow it felt way too personal yesterday. Today I'm just trying to enjoy the ride.

One way I calmed myself down was to remember that I'm playing poker with money I won at poker. So in a worse case scenario, I lose poker money. If it weren't for poker I wouldn't have this money to begin with.

Now I'm going to eat dinner and be a human being for a few hours.

Tilt

Boy am I on tilt.

It's been one of those days where it doesn't matter what I do.

The details don't even matter. It all keeps failing.

It's one of those days where this game seems utterly impossible.

It starts to feel personal.

Almost like a conspiracy.

Vegas Fact #2

Vegas Fact #2
Valet parking in Las Vegas is free. It was Saturday night at the Wynn, Sunday night at Caesars and last week at the Bellagio. There was no charge other than my choice to tip. This experience mainly stood out because I recall having to pay to self park in Atlantic City at some point.

It depends

That's the answer to every poker question:

It depends.

Should I raise, fold or call with pocket 3's?

It depends.

Who's in front of you? Who's behind you? What are the blinds? How many chips does everyone have? How is everyone playing? Is the table tight or loose?

At the most basic level you need to determine the poker IQ of your opponents. Are they aware of situational plays or are they only playing the 2 cards in front of them? At the core this is everything.

My opponents seem to think I'm playing loose lately. One guy even told me that's his nickname for me....Loosey. But the truth is deep down I still feel pretty tight. What he's picking up on though is my finding other loose aggressive players and picking them out.

Once you determine "who is who" the table suddenly becomes so clear.

You got the people playing their own cards.

And people playing cards, players and situations.

I will play much worse cards against the latter.

So the game gets real interesting when people playing situations find themselves in hands against each other. Cause once you're thinking on this other level you gotta start wondering "did that old man just raise the pot cause no one else has entered it yet and he's on the cutoff seat? Or might he actually have a hand this time?" And then the next hand when 3 players limp and some guy repops it from the big blind you have to wonder "is he making that standard "no limpers raise" that so many players love to do over and over again or might he too actually have a hand?"

This might be followed by a guy limping under the gun but then pushing in a huge reraise when it gets raised back to him because now he's representing aces.

And this is the fun of poker. Does he or doesn't he have it? It's the way you make (or lose) alot of money.

I haven't just been waiting for great cards to make moves. I've been waiting for situations. Position. Opportunity.